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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 25 July
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Sat, 31 Jul 93 20:09:11 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  25 JULY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 25 JULY, 1993
--------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 206, 07/25/93
10.7 FLUX=102    90-AVG=108        SSN=080      BKI=1211 0101  BAI=002
BGND-XRAY=B1.4     FLU1=2.8E+05  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=2221 1212  PAI=006
  BOU-DEV=008,017,009,006,004,006,004,008   DEV-AVG=007 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B5.1   @ 0508UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.2   @ 2359UT   XRAY-AVG= B1.7
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 1925UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 1155UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.4%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1925UT     PCA-MIN= -0.5DB @ 2340UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55375NT @ 0059UT   BOUTF-MIN=55355NT @ 1921UT  BOUTF-AVG=55366NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+074,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+113NT@ 1444UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-059NT@ 2010UT  G6-AVG=+097,-018,-042
 FLUXFCST=STD:100,105,110;SESC:100,105,110 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,015/010,010,020
    KFCST=2333 3222 2333 3222  27DAY-AP=006,011   27DAY-KP=2112 2232 2224 3233
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=**SWEEP:II=1@0627-0632UTC
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 24 JUL 93 was  76.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 24 JUL 93 are: 1o 1- 1+ 2-   1+ 2o 2o 1+ 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. A few subflares occurred,
       one of which reached B-class. A minor Type II sweep burst
       occurred at 25/0627Z, associated with a subflare from Region
       7552 (N15E43). No new regions were assigned.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past
       24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be at mostly unsettled levels during the first two
       days. Activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active
       levels during the final day due to coronal hole effects.

            Event probabilities 26 jul-28 jul

                             Class M    05/05/05
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 26 jul-28 jul

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                10/10/35
                        Minor Storm           05/05/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                10/10/40
                        Minor Storm           05/05/25
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/10

            Propagation conditions were normal over all regions.
       Similar conditions are possible over the next 3 days with a
       chance for minor signal degradation over the high and polar
       latitude paths on the final day due to enhanced geophysical
       activity from a well-placed solar coronal hole.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 25/2400Z JULY
-------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7547  N09W56  121  0010 AXX  02  003 ALPHA
7548  S12W41  106  0140 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7550  S20W38  103  0020 CRO  02  003 BETA
7551  S09W16  081  0020 BXO  10  009 BETA
7552  N15E43  022  0080 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7553  S13E30  035  0010 BXO  06  003 BETA
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 26 JULY TO 28 JULY
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 25 JULY, 1993
---------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 0426 0427 0429                          190
 0622 0623 0636 7552  N13E40       SF               II
 0952 0952 0952                          460


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 25 JULY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
25/ 0627              0632       N13E40   RSP               1


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 25/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
          NONE VISIBLE


**  End of Daily Report  **


