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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 23 July
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Sat, 31 Jul 93 18:28:25 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  23 JULY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 23 JULY, 1993
--------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 204, 07/23/93
10.7 FLUX=109.8  90-AVG=108        SSN=097      BKI=2221 2102  BAI=005
BGND-XRAY=B1.7     FLU1=1.3E+05  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=3221 2112  PAI=007
  BOU-DEV=017,016,011,007,010,006,002,010   DEV-AVG=009 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C1.0   @ 2150UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.4   @ 2127UT   XRAY-AVG= B2.6
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 2350UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 0625UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.2%
  PCA-MAX= +0.2DB @ 1540UT     PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 2020UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55375NT @ 1416UT   BOUTF-MIN=55348NT @ 1828UT  BOUTF-AVG=55363NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+075,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+116NT@ 1546UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-062NT@ 2103UT  G6-AVG=+101,-018,-045
 FLUXFCST=STD:105,100,100;SESC:105,100,100 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,005,010/010,010,010
    KFCST=1123 1222 1123 1222  27DAY-AP=009,007   27DAY-KP=3311 2223 2122 2221
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 22 JUL 93 was  82.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 22 JUL 93 are: 3- 3o 3- 4-   3- 2o 3o 2- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. New Region 7552 (N14E68) was
       the most active region, producing a few B-class subflares. The
       largest was a B8/SF at 23/2034Z. Region 7553 (S13E60) was also
       numbered. It is a single small sunspot located in the returning
       fields associated with old Region 7530.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low to low.

            The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled.

            Event probabilities 24 jul-26 jul

                             Class M    05/05/05
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 24 jul-26 jul

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                10/10/10
                        Minor Storm           05/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                10/10/10
                        Minor Storm           05/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

            HF propagation conditions were normal.  Normal propagation
       should continue throughout the next 24 to 72 hours.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 23/2400Z JULY
-------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7547  N08W29  120  0040 CAO  06  008 BETA
7548  S12W16  107  0120 HSX  02  002 ALPHA
7550  S20W11  102  0060 DAO  05  012 BETA
7551  S09E08  083  0040 DAO  06  013 BETA
7552  N14E68  023  0090 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7553  S13E60  031  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 24 JULY TO 26 JULY
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 23 JULY, 1993
---------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 1642 1642 1643                          110
 1754 1754 1754                          100
 2137 2151 2208 7548  S10W16 C1.0  1N    360
 2335 2335 2335                          150


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 23 JULY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 23/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
19   S12W65 S12W75 N15W80 N15W80  178  ISO   POS   005 10830A
21   S14W47 S24W57 S16W73 S14W47  149  ISO   POS   006 10830A
23   S42E38 S42E38 S34E15 S20E15  072  ISO   NEG   011 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


