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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 20 July
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Wed, 21 Jul 93 2:36:42 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  20 JULY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 20 JULY, 1993
--------------------------------------------------------

NOTE: WE WILL BE SUSPENDING MANY SERVICES (INCLUDING THESE DAILY
      REPORTS) UNTIL NEXT THURSDAY, JULY 29.  THIS IS A SCHEDULED
      SERVICE OUTAGE.  SERVICES WILL RESUME AND OLD REPORTS WILL BE
      DISTRIBUTED ON 29 OR 30 JULY.  WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY
      INCONVENIENCE THIS MAY CAUSE AND THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE.

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 201, 07/20/93
10.7 FLUX=102.2  90-AVG=108        SSN=094      BKI=1234 2233  BAI=012
BGND-XRAY=B1.5     FLU1=8.5E+05  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=1234 2344  PAI=015
  BOU-DEV=008,018,024,042,019,017,025,038   DEV-AVG=023 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C1.0   @ 0258UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.1   @ 0207UT   XRAY-AVG= B2.4
NEUTN-MAX= +004%  @ 0130UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 2110UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.3%
  PCA-MAX= +0.5DB @ 1540UT     PCA-MIN= -0.9DB @ 2305UT    PCA-AVG= +0.1DB
BOUTF-MAX=55383NT @ 1422UT   BOUTF-MIN=55322NT @ 1756UT  BOUTF-AVG=55365NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+072,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+134NT@ 1810UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-084NT@ 2224UT  G6-AVG=+093,-019,-052
 FLUXFCST=STD:110,110,110;SESC:110,110,110 BAI/PAI-FCST=020,020,010/020,015,010
    KFCST=3345 2344 4434 5233  27DAY-AP=013,025   27DAY-KP=3213 3243 3454 4433
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=**SWEEP:II=1@0256-0306UTC
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 19 JUL 93 was  78.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 19 JUL 93 are: 2- 2- 1- 2-   1o 1+ 2o 2o 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. An optically uncorrelated
       C1.0 occurred at 20/0259Z and was associated with a weak Type
       II radio sweep. All of the present disk regions remain small
       and magnetically simple.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low. The general level of activity is expected to increase
       over the next few days due to the return of old Region 7530
       (S11, l-030). This increase may be starting with the
       uncorrelated C-flare mentioned above.

            The geomagnetic field was quiet, gradually becoming quiet to
       unsettled by 20/0900Z. This increased activity may be the
       beginning of a coronal hole related disturbance.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be unsettled to active, due to a coronal hole,
       becoming quiet to unsettled by the end of the three day
       forecast period.

            Event probabilities 21 jul-23 jul

                             Class M    05/05/10
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 21 jul-23 jul

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                30/30/25
                        Minor Storm           15/15/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    15/15/10

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                35/35/30
                        Minor Storm           20/20/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    15/15/10

            HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.
       Minor signal degradation appears to have begun over the high
       and polar latitude paths.  Increased fading and multipathing
       has been observed in conjunction with the minor increase in
       geomagnetic activity.  Similar minor degradation is expected to
       persist through 22 and 23 July before beginning to return back
       to more stable conditions.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 20/2400Z JULY
-------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7545  N06W63  194  0010 BXO  05  006 BETA
7547  N08E10  121  0100 CAO  03  003 BETA
7548  S11E23  108  0160 CAO  03  003 BETA
7549  S17W53  184  0040 CRO  08  006 BETA
7550  S20E28  103  0030 BXO  05  011 BETA
7551  S10E47  084  0050 DRO  07  005 BETA
7546  S08W59  190                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 21 JULY TO 23 JULY
NMBR LAT    LO
7530 S11   029
7537 N10   024
7540 N06   018


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 20 JULY, 1993
---------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 0243 0259 0319              C1.0                   II
 0354 0354 0354                          130


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 20 JULY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
20/ 0256              0306                RSP    C1.0   36  1


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 20/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
19   N20W28 S13W41 S10W46 N21W33  172  ISO   POS   010 10830A
21   S18W12 S20W39 S20W39 S13W14  156  ISO   POS   005 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


