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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 19 July
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Mon, 19 Jul 93 23:48:52 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  19 JULY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 19 JULY, 1993
--------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 200, 07/19/93
10.7 FLUX=100.8  90-AVG=109        SSN=102      BKI=0102 1102  BAI=002
BGND-XRAY=B1.1     FLU1=7.0E+05  FLU10=1.4E+04  PKI=2212 1122  PAI=005
  BOU-DEV=004,009,004,011,006,006,004,015   DEV-AVG=007 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B3.3   @ 0417UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.0   @ 2155UT   XRAY-AVG= B1.2
NEUTN-MAX= +004%  @ 2210UT   NEUTN-MIN= -001%  @ 1415UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.7%
  PCA-MAX= +0.4DB @ 1540UT     PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 1620UT    PCA-AVG= +0.1DB
BOUTF-MAX=55378NT @ 1401UT   BOUTF-MIN=55344NT @ 1802UT  BOUTF-AVG=55367NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+080,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+135NT@ 1705UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-061NT@ 0427UT  G6-AVG=+102,-016,-042
 FLUXFCST=STD:115,110,105;SESC:115,110,105 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,020,020/015,025,018
    KFCST=2234 1444 3345 2344  27DAY-AP=006,013   27DAY-KP=1011 1233 3213 3243
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 18 JUL 93 was  71.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 18 JUL 93 are: 1+ 1- 2- 2o   2- 2- 2o 2- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. Only a few isolated
       B-class flares occurred since yesterday. All of the present
       disk regions are small and magnetically simple.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low to low. Activity levels may increase over the next few
       days with the return of old active Region 7530 (S11, L-030).
       However, a significant increase is not expected since this
       region was decaying as it approached the west limb two weeks
       ago.

            The geomagnetic field was quiet.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet for the next several hours, becoming
       unsettled to active due to a coronal hole.

            Event probabilities 20 jul-22 jul

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 20 jul-22 jul

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                25/30/30
                        Minor Storm           10/15/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/15/15

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                30/35/35
                        Minor Storm           15/20/20
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/15/15

            HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.
       Similar conditions should persist through 20 July.  However,
       some deterioration is expected on 21 and 22 July as a well
       placed coronal hole increases levels of geomagnetic and auroral
       activity.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 19/2400Z JULY
-------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7543  S09W84  228  0060 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7545  N07W51  195  0040 CAO  06  008 BETA
7547  N09E24  120  0090 CSO  04  004 BETA
7548  S11E36  108  0150 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7549  S17W41  185  0040 DAO  08  005 BETA
7550  S20E40  104  0010 BXO  04  009 BETA
7551  S09E59  085  0060 DAO  06  004 BETA
7546  S08W46  190                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 20 JULY TO 22 JULY
NMBR LAT    LO
7530 S11   029
7537 N10   024
7540 N06   018


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 19 JULY, 1993
---------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 19 JULY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 19/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
19   S03W21 S09W30 S07W33 N20W23  177  ISO   POS   005 10830A
21   S19W03 S25W05 S18W23 S11W22  158  ISO   POS   004 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


