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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 18 July
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Tue, 20 Jul 93 9:50:59 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  18 JULY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 18 JULY, 1993
--------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 199, 07/18/93
10.7 FLUX=100    90-AVG=109        SSN=118      BKI=0021 2121  BAI=003
BGND-XRAY=B1.4     FLU1=1.6E+06  FLU10=1.4E+04  PKI=1122 2222  PAI=005
  BOU-DEV=004,002,012,006,010,008,010,008   DEV-AVG=007 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B5.8   @ 1852UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.1   @ 2344UT   XRAY-AVG= B1.6
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 2150UT   NEUTN-MIN= -001%  @ 1530UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.6%
  PCA-MAX= +0.4DB @ 1555UT     PCA-MIN= -0.6DB @ 1650UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55382NT @ 1413UT   BOUTF-MIN=55344NT @ 1726UT  BOUTF-AVG=55366NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+092,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+149NT@ 1529UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-058NT@ 2133UT  G6-AVG=+115,-017,-040
 FLUXFCST=STD:125,115,110;SESC:125,115,110 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,015,020/010,015,025
    KFCST=1122 1111 1122 1111  27DAY-AP=004,006   27DAY-KP=1011 1222 1011 1233
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 17 JUL 93 was  71.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 17 JUL 93 are: 1o 1- 0+ 1o   1o 2- 2- 2o 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. One isolated C-class flare
       occurred at 17/2203Z and was not observed optically. Region
       7545 (N07W38) was declining during the day. Region 7549
       (S17W25) showed growth and development of small penumbra. Two
       new regions were assigned: Regions 7550 (S19E53) and 7551
       (S09E71).

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low to low. Regions 7549 and 7550 appear to be the most
       likely sources for small flares. A gradual upward trend is
       anticipated with the return of old Region 7530 (S11, l-30)
       which produced 7 M-class flares on its previous disk transit.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for
       the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next 36 hours. An
       increase to mostly active levels is expected late on day two
       and should last through day three. The activity is forecast
       because of a favorably positioned coronal hole.

            Event probabilities 19 jul-21 jul

                             Class M    05/05/10
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 19 jul-21 jul

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                10/25/30
                        Minor Storm           05/10/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/10/15

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                10/30/35
                        Minor Storm           05/15/20
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/10/15

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all
       regions.  Similar good propagation should continue through the
       next 24 hours.  Gradual deterioration is expected on 20 and
       particularly 21 July when a well-placed coronal hole is
       expected to begin enhancing levels of geomagnetic and auroral
       activity.  High and polar latitude paths will be affected the
       most, although some middle latitude paths could also experience
       minor signal degradation.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 18/2400Z JULY
-------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7543  S08W67  224  0070 CAO  07  006 BETA
7544  N03W77  234  0010 BXO  03  002 BETA
7545  N07W38  195  0060 CAO  06  013 BETA
7547  N08E36  121  0080 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7548  S11E49  108  0130 HSX  03  001 ALPHA
7549  S17W27  184  0070 CRO  06  009 BETA
7550  S19E52  105  0030 BXO  03  005 BETA
7551  S09E70  087  0030 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7546  S08W33  190                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 19 JULY TO 21 JULY
NMBR LAT    LO
7529 S12   061
7530 S11   029


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 18 JULY, 1993
---------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 18 JULY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
18/A0814             B2332       N27W40   DSF


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 18/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
19   N15E01 S10W16 N05W19 N20W04  171  ISO   POS   007 10830A
21   S26E22 S26E22 S12W10 S12W10  157  ISO   POS   009 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


