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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 17 July
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Sat, 17 Jul 93 22:13:55 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  17 JULY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 17 JULY, 1993
--------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 198, 07/17/93
10.7 FLUX=099.3  90-AVG=109        SSN=088      BKI=1000 1101  BAI=001
BGND-XRAY=B1.1     FLU1=1.0E+06  FLU10=1.4E+04  PKI=1101 1222  PAI=004
  BOU-DEV=006,002,003,004,006,006,004,006   DEV-AVG=004 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C2.3   @ 0833UT    XRAY-MIN= A9.7   @ 0100UT   XRAY-AVG= B2.1
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 1945UT   NEUTN-MIN= -001%  @ 1900UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.7%
  PCA-MAX= +0.4DB @ 1555UT     PCA-MIN= -0.9DB @ 2315UT    PCA-AVG= -0.1DB
BOUTF-MAX=55382NT @ 1338UT   BOUTF-MIN=55348NT @ 1854UT  BOUTF-AVG=55368NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+085,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+128NT@ 1426UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-059NT@ 2147UT  G6-AVG=+108,-017,-042
 FLUXFCST=STD:100,100,095;SESC:100,100,095 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,005,010/008,010,015
    KFCST=1112 1111 1112 1111  27DAY-AP=006,004   27DAY-KP=0031 2221 1011 1222
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 16 JUL 93 was  63.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 16 JUL 93 are: 1o 0+ 1- 0+   1- 1+ 1+ 2- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. One uncorrelated C-class flare
       was observed at 0833Z. Region 7545 (N07W24) showed some growth
       during the day. New Region 7549 (S17W14) emerged on the disk.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low to low.

       STD: A long-duration x-ray enhancement was observed near
       17/2200Z and may be related to an active region evident in
       Yohkoh x-ray imagery just beyond the southeast limb.  This
       region should come into view over the next several days and
       could elevate activity levels at that time. The background
       x-ray flux is increasing together with a slowly but steadily
       rising 10.7 cm solar radio flux.  A trans-equatorial coronal
       hole is also visible in x-ray imagery, which is now beginning
       to transit the central meridian.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for
       the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next two days and
       partway through the third day. An increase to unsettled to
       active is anticipated to begin sometime late on day three as
       a response to a favorably positioned coronal hole.

            Event probabilities 18 jul-20 jul

                             Class M    05/05/05
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 18 jul-20 jul

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                05/05/25
                        Minor Storm           01/05/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/10

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                05/05/30
                        Minor Storm           01/05/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/10

            HF propagation conditions have been near-normal over all
       regions.  Stable geomagnetic and auroral conditions are
       expected to persist through the next 24 to 48 hours.  A minor
       increase in geophysical activity attributed to a well-placed
       coronal hole should begin to produce minor signal degradation
       over the high and polar latitude regions on 19 or 20 July.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 17/2400Z JULY
-------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7542  N08W88  259  0070 HAX  02  001 ALPHA
7543  S08W53  224  0140 DAO  09  007 BETA
7545  N07W24  195  0080 DAO  06  014 BETA
7547  N08E50  121  0090 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7548  S11E64  107  0160 HAX  02  001 ALPHA
7549  S17W14  185  0010 BXO  04  004 BETA
7544  N03W65  236                    PLAGE
7546  S08W20  191                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 18 JULY TO 20 JULY
NMBR LAT    LO
7529 S12   061


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 17 JULY, 1993
---------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 17 JULY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 17/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
19   N18E10 S10W05 S03W06 N18W00  172  ISO   POS   008 10830A
21   S11E27 S23E07 S12E02 S11E27  158  ISO   POS   008 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


