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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 16 July
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Fri, 16 Jul 93 23:38:12 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  16 JULY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 16 JULY, 1993
--------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 197, 07/16/93
10.7 FLUX=097.1  90-AVG=109        SSN=096      BKI=1100 0101  BAI=001
BGND-XRAY=A9.9     FLU1=8.5E+05  FLU10=1.3E+04  PKI=1010 1112  PAI=003
  BOU-DEV=008,005,001,002,004,008,004,008   DEV-AVG=005 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B2.4   @ 0410UT    XRAY-MIN= A9.1   @ 0124UT   XRAY-AVG= B1.1
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 1910UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 1040UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.6%
  PCA-MAX= +0.2DB @ 1810UT     PCA-MIN= -1.0DB @ 2240UT    PCA-AVG= -0.2DB
BOUTF-MAX=55377NT @ 1350UT   BOUTF-MIN=55353NT @ 1736UT  BOUTF-AVG=55366NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+084,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+130NT@ 1738UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-059NT@ 1919UT  G6-AVG=+106,-017,-041
 FLUXFCST=STD:095,090,090;SESC:095,090,090 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,005,010/007,010,010
    KFCST=1112 1111 1122 1111  27DAY-AP=005,006   27DAY-KP=1221 2221 0031 2221
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=**245STRM:1344-1551UTC
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 15 JUL 93 was  51.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 15 JUL 93 are: 2- 3- 2- 1o   2- 2- 2- 3- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. All the regions on the disk
       were stable and quiet. Region 7545 (N05W11) has shown some slow
       growth during the past 24 hours. New Region 7548 (S08E75)
       rotated into view today.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low to low.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for
       the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days.

            Event probabilities 17 jul-19 jul

                             Class M    05/05/05
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 17 jul-19 jul

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                05/10/10
                        Minor Storm           01/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                05/10/10
                        Minor Storm           01/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

            HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.
       Similar normal propagation is expected over the next 72 hours,
       through 19 July inclusive.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 16/2400Z JULY
-------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7542  N07W73  257  0080 HSX  02  002 ALPHA
7543  S09W38  222  0220 DAO  09  009 BETA
7544  N03W52  236  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7545  N05W11  195  0060 CAO  05  011 BETA
7546  S08W07  191  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7547  N08E61  123  0090 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7548  S11E75  109  0110 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 17 JULY TO 19 JULY
NMBR LAT    LO
7529 S12   061


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 16 JULY, 1993
---------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
NONE


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 16 JULY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 16/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
19   N12E29 S10E08 S10E08 N25E23  170  ISO   POS   010 10830A
21   S25E42 S25E42 S12E16 S12E42  156  ISO   POS   007 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


