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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 15 July
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Fri, 16 Jul 93 0:31:39 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  15 JULY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 15 JULY, 1993
--------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 196, 07/15/93
10.7 FLUX=093.2  90-AVG=109        SSN=102      BKI=0310 0102  BAI=003
BGND-XRAY=A9.5     FLU1=7.1E+05  FLU10=1.3E+04  PKI=2321 2223  PAI=007
  BOU-DEV=004,026,005,003,004,005,004,019   DEV-AVG=008 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B2.5   @ 0749UT    XRAY-MIN= A7.5   @ 2030UT   XRAY-AVG= B1.1
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 1105UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 0455UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.1%
  PCA-MAX= +0.2DB @ 1625UT     PCA-MIN= -0.8DB @ 2125UT    PCA-AVG= -0.1DB
BOUTF-MAX=55377NT @ 1350UT   BOUTF-MIN=55347NT @ 1803UT  BOUTF-AVG=55366NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+079,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+128NT@ 1725UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-060NT@ 2324UT  G6-AVG=+105,-017,-044
 FLUXFCST=STD:095,095,090;SESC:095,095,090 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,005,010/010,010,010
    KFCST=1112 1111 1122 1111  27DAY-AP=002,005   27DAY-KP=1010 1**2 1221 2221
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 14 JUL 93 was  45.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 14 JUL 93 are: 2- 2- 2- 2-   1o 1+ 1+ 2o 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

            Solar activity was very low. Region 7543's (S09W25)
       rate of growth slowed considerably compared to yesterday: the
       group appears to have stabilized as a simple D-type beta group
       with a north-south inversion line. Regions 7542 (N07W61) and
       7545 (N06E02) showed some growth. The other regions were stable
       or decaying.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low to low.

            The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet levels
       for the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days.

            Event probabilities 16 jul-18 jul

                             Class M    05/05/05
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 16 jul-18 jul

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                05/10/10
                        Minor Storm           01/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                05/10/10
                        Minor Storm           01/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

            HF propagation conditions were normal over the last 24
       hours.  Similar conditions are expected over the next three
       days, through 18 July inclusive.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 15/2400Z JULY
-------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7542  N07W61  258  0140 CAO  05  008 BETA
7543  S09W25  222  0250 DSO  08  018 BETA
7544  N03W37  234  0010 BXO  05  005 BETA
7545  N06E03  194  0030 CRO  03  007 BETA
7546  S08E14  183  0000 BXO  04  003 BETA
7547  N08E75  122  0070 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 16 JULY TO 18 JULY
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 15 JULY, 1993
---------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
NONE


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 15 JULY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 15/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
19   N20E36 S08E34 S02E20 N22E34  172  ISO   POS   008 10830A
21   S30E86 S30E86 S12E28 S12E28  143  ISO   POS   010 10830A
22   N64W04 N38W62 N38W62 N64W54  247  ISO   POS   017 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


