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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 14 July
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Wed, 14 Jul 93 21:41:52 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  14 JULY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 14 JULY, 1993
--------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 195, 07/14/93
10.7 FLUX=092.6  90-AVG=109        SSN=092      BKI=1100 0000  BAI=000
BGND-XRAY=B1.2     FLU1=5.3E+05  FLU10=1.3E+04  PKI=2222 1112  PAI=005
  BOU-DEV=006,005,004,002,003,003,26707,004   DEV-AVG=3341 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B9.5   @ 1227UT    XRAY-MIN= A7.9   @ 0028UT   XRAY-AVG= B1.6
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 0200UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 0805UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 1255UT     PCA-MIN= -0.8DB @ 1900UT    PCA-AVG= -0.2DB
BOUTF-MAX=55379NT @ 1340UT   BOUTF-MIN=55355NT @ 1706UT  BOUTF-AVG=55367NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+072,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+117NT@ 1606UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-060NT@ 1817UT  G6-AVG=+099,-015,-040
 FLUXFCST=STD:095,095,100;SESC:095,095,100 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,005,010/010,010,010
    KFCST=1112 1111 1122 1111  27DAY-AP=005,002   27DAY-KP=1112 1222 1010 1**2
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 13 JUL 93 was  50.8.
      The Full Kp Indices for 13 JUL 93 are: 2+ 3o 4- 3-   3- 2+ 2o 2- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. Region 7543 (S09W11)
       produced all of today's frequent B-class flares. This group has
       shown considerable growth over the last 24 hours but is simple
       magnetically. A 25 degree filament at S21W78 was reported to
       have disappeared sometime between 13/2006Z and 14/1536Z.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low to low. Region 7543 is expected to produce isolated
       C-class flares over the next three days.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for
       the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled.

            Event probabilities 15 jul-17 jul

                             Class M    05/05/05
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 15 jul-17 jul

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                05/10/10
                        Minor Storm           01/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                05/10/10
                        Minor Storm           01/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

            HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.
       Similar conditions are expected to persist over the next three
       days, through 17 July inclusive.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 14/2400Z JULY
-------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7542  N08W48  258  0100 CAO  04  005 BETA
7543  S09W11  221  0170 DAI  06  025 BETA
7544  N05W22  232  0010 BXO  07  007 BETA
7545  N07E15  195  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7546  S08E21  189  0010 BXO  03  004 BETA
7541  N22W66  276                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 15 JULY TO 17 JULY
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 14 JULY, 1993
---------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
NONE


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 14 JULY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
 13/A2006           14/B1536    S21W78    DSF


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 14/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
19   N08E54 N03E52 N15E41 N18E53  164  ISO   POS   003 10830A
20   S12E49 S12E45 S01E33 N02E42  173  ISO   POS   004 10830A
21   S20E77 S26E65 S16E45 S15E62  156  ISO   POS   007 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


