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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 13 July
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Wed, 14 Jul 93 8:07:42 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  13 JULY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 13 JULY, 1993
--------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 194, 07/13/93
10.7 FLUX=086.6  90-AVG=109        SSN=076      BKI=2332 2122  BAI=008
BGND-XRAY=A6.6     FLU1=5.4E+05  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=2343 3222  PAI=013
  BOU-DEV=015,031,038,017,017,008,019,010   DEV-AVG=019 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B3.4   @ 0837UT    XRAY-MIN= A5.8   @ 0100UT   XRAY-AVG= A9.2
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 2120UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 1920UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1655UT     PCA-MIN= -0.7DB @ 1810UT    PCA-AVG= -0.1DB
BOUTF-MAX=55374NT @ 0322UT   BOUTF-MIN=55341NT @ 1747UT  BOUTF-AVG=55362NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+071,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+112NT@ 1418UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-067NT@ 2003UT  G6-AVG=+095,-019,-048
 FLUXFCST=STD:085,085,090;SESC:085,085,090 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,005,005/010,010,010
    KFCST=2223 1222 2223 1222  27DAY-AP=005,005   27DAY-KP=1122 1211 1112 1222
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 12 JUL 93 was  58.4.
      The Full Kp Indices for 12 JUL 93 are: 3- 2o 4- 3o   2- 2+ 2o 2o 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low for the past 24 hours.
       New Region 7546 (S08E46) emerged on the disk.  New spot
       development northeast of Region 7544 (N04W08) may be a separate
       bipolar group. A large quiescent prominence was still a major
       feature on the northeast limb.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to
       continue at very low levels.

       STD:  There are some signs of increasing background x-ray flux.

            The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled for the
       past 24 hours with some active periods at high geomagnetic
       latitudes.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to persist at unsettled levels tomorrow, becoming
       quiet by the end of the forecast period.

            Event probabilities 14 jul-16 jul

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 14 jul-16 jul

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                05/05/05
                        Minor Storm           05/05/01
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                30/15/15
                        Minor Storm           05/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/05/05

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all
       regions.  MUFs have been slightly lower than usual over the
       last couple of days due to a weaker ionosphere from low solar
       indices.  However, most major HF communication bands have had
       normal propagation.  Similar (if not improving) propagation is
       expected over the next 3 days, through 16 July inclusive.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 13/2400Z JULY
-------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7542  N08W34  258  0100 CSO  05  007 BETA
7543  S09E03  221  0030 CSO  04  007 BETA
7544  N04W08  232  0030 CAO  06  008 BETA
7545  N07E28  196  0010 AXX  01  002 ALPHA
7546  S08E35  189  0010 AXX  01  002 ALPHA
7538  S07W81  305                    PLAGE
7541  N22W53  277                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 14 JULY TO 16 JULY
NMBR LAT    LO
7528 N02   122


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 13 JULY, 1993
---------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 0333 0333 0334                          100


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 13 JULY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 13/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **


