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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 12 July
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Mon, 12 Jul 93 22:06:07 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  12 JULY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 12 JULY, 1993
--------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 193, 07/12/93
10.7 FLUX=085.8  90-AVG=109        SSN=060      BKI=1143 2212  BAI=009
BGND-XRAY=A5.3     FLU1=7.7E+05  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=3243 2222  PAI=010
  BOU-DEV=006,009,049,030,012,012,006,010   DEV-AVG=016 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B2.7   @ 1033UT    XRAY-MIN= A4.5   @ 2015UT   XRAY-AVG= A6.6
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 0020UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 1950UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.2%
  PCA-MAX= +0.2DB @ 1645UT     PCA-MIN= -0.8DB @ 2300UT    PCA-AVG= -0.1DB
BOUTF-MAX=55374NT @ 1310UT   BOUTF-MIN=55352NT @ 1743UT  BOUTF-AVG=55363NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+073,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+118NT@ 1609UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-065NT@ 2355UT  G6-AVG=+097,-020,-049
 FLUXFCST=STD:085,085,085;SESC:085,085,085 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,005,005/010,007,007
    KFCST=4445 4444 2223 1222  27DAY-AP=009,005   27DAY-KP=3332 1222 1122 1211
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 11 JUL 93 was  40.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 11 JUL 93 are: 4o 5o 5+ 4+   3- 3o 2+ 2- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low for the past 24 hours. New
       Region 7545 (N08E45) emerged on the disk near N08E45. It is a
       simple bipolar group. A filament near S02W25 disappeared on 11
       July between 1632Z and 1948Z. The large quiescent hedgerow
       prominence still decorates the northeast limb.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to
       continue at very low levels.

            The geomagnetic field has been primarily quiet to unsettled
       for the past 24 hours. Active conditions occurred at some
       stations between 0600-0900Z.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be mostly quiet with occasional periods at
       unsettled to active levels especially at high geomagnetic
       latitudes.

            Event probabilities 13 jul-15 jul

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 13 jul-15 jul

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                10/01/01
                        Minor Storm           10/01/01
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                25/15/15
                        Minor Storm           25/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/05/05

            HF propagation conditions returned to near-normal over the
       low and middle latitude regions today.  High and polar latitude
       paths were slower to recover but were only slightly
       below-normal today.  Conditions are expected to continue
       near-normal over all regions over the next three days at least.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 12/2400Z JULY
-------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7542  N08W22  259  0120 CSO  03  004 BETA
7543  S09E18  219  0010 BXO  03  006 BETA
7544  N05E06  231  0030 CRO  06  007 BETA
7545  N08E44  193  0010 BXO  03  003 BETA
7538  S07W68  305                    PLAGE
7541  N22W40  277                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 13 JULY TO 15 JULY
NMBR LAT    LO
7528 N02   122


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 12 JULY, 1993
---------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 1833 1837 1841              B1.5        270
 2243 2243 2243                          100


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 12 JULY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
11/A1631             B1949       S02W25   DSF
12/A0900             B2330       N16E62   DSF


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 12/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **


