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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 11 July
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Sun, 11 Jul 93 23:12:12 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  11 JULY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 11 JULY, 1993
--------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 192, 07/11/93
10.7 FLUX=083.0  90-AVG=109        SSN=045      BKI=5544 2311  BAI=022
BGND-XRAY=A5.7     FLU1=1.5E+06  FLU10=1.3E+04  PKI=4554 3322  PAI=025
  BOU-DEV=079,113,069,040,019,023,006,006   DEV-AVG=044 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B2.1   @ 0045UT    XRAY-MIN= A3.2   @ 1103UT   XRAY-AVG= A7.2
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 0950UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 0815UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.2%
  PCA-MAX= +0.2DB @ 2150UT     PCA-MIN= -0.6DB @ 1700UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55392NT @ 0315UT   BOUTF-MIN=55339NT @ 1838UT  BOUTF-AVG=55357NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+071,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+127NT@ 1614UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-114NT@ 0253UT  G6-AVG=+097,-022,-057
 FLUXFCST=STD:085,080,080;SESC:085,080,080 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,010,005/015,010,010
    KFCST=4445 4444 4445 3444  27DAY-AP=011,009   27DAY-KP=1325 2222 3332 1222
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 10 JUL 93 was  62.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 10 JUL 93 are: 3o 2o 2+ 4-   3o 2+ 3- 3- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low for the past 24 hours. There
       are only 3 spotted regions on the visible disk. None of them
       are eruptive. An active prominence is still visible on the west
       limb near N40. An inactive hedgerow prominence was reported on
       the northeast limb.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to
       continue at very low levels.

            The geomagnetic field has varied between quiet and storm
       levels for the past 24 hours. The period began with unsettled
       conditions but increased to minor storm levels at middle
       latitudes after 0000Z, lasting through 1200Z. Intervals at
       major storm levels were reported at high latitudes. Activity
       has declined in recent hours toward unsettled to quiet
       conditions. The source of this disturbance is unknown.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be unsettled with possible occasional periods at
       active or minor storm levels, especially at high geomagnetic
       latitudes.

            Event probabilities 12 jul-14 jul

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 12 jul-14 jul

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                30/20/01
                        Minor Storm           15/10/01
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                25/25/15
                        Minor Storm           25/20/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/10/05

            HF propagation conditions were normal to slightly below
       normal over most regions.  High and polar latitude paths
       suffered minor signal degradation and below-normal signal
       propagation between approximately 06:00 and 15:00 UTC.  Gradual
       improvements were noted thereafter as the geomagnetic
       disturbance waned.  A return to near-normal propagation is
       expected on 12 July that should last for at least the next
       three days (through 14 July inclusive).  Consistently low solar
       indices are expected over the next week which will reduce the
       usefulness of the higher frequency bands.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 11/2400Z JULY
-------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7542  N08W08  258  0170 CSO  07  004 BETA
7543  S09E29  221  0020 BXO  03  005 BETA
7544  N05E20  230  0050 CSO  05  006 BETA
7538  S07W55  305                    PLAGE
7541  N22W27  277                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 12 JULY TO 14 JULY
NMBR LAT    LO
7528 N02   122


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 11 JULY, 1993
---------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
NONE



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 11 JULY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
10/0041             10/0052                                 2


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 11/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **


