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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 10 July
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Sun, 11 Jul 93 1:28:57 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  10 JULY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 10 JULY, 1993
--------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 191, 07/10/93
10.7 FLUX=086    90-AVG=109        SSN=049      BKI=2224 2223  BAI=010
BGND-XRAY=A8.5     FLU1=2.6E+05  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=3224 3233  PAI=012
  BOU-DEV=011,011,013,052,019,013,019,023   DEV-AVG=020 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B4.4   @ 0436UT    XRAY-MIN= A6.0   @ 2023UT   XRAY-AVG= B1.6
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 1715UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 2345UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.1%
  PCA-MAX= +0.2DB @ 1710UT     PCA-MIN= -1.0DB @ 2050UT    PCA-AVG= -0.1DB
BOUTF-MAX=55374NT @ 0007UT   BOUTF-MIN=55335NT @ 1910UT  BOUTF-AVG=55362NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+076,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+145NT@ 1724UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-073NT@ 0237UT  G6-AVG=+100,-022,-051
 FLUXFCST=STD:085,085,080;SESC:085,085,080 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,005,005/010,010,010
    KFCST=2234 1222 3332 1222  27DAY-AP=015,011   27DAY-KP=2353 2233 1325 2222
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 09 JUL 93 was  68.7.
      The Full Kp Indices for 09 JUL 93 are: 2o 3+ 3- 2+   3o 3+ 3o 2- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. There was no notable
       active region development and no new regions were numbered. An
       active prominence was observed on the west limb near N40.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to
       continue at very low levels.

            The geomagnetic field has been mostly quiet for the past 24
       hours with the exception of an active interval between
       09-12 UT (local morning hours).

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to persist at unsettled to quiet levels.

            Event probabilities 11 jul-13 jul

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 11 jul-13 jul

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                50/01/01
                        Minor Storm           01/01/01
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                30/01/01
                        Minor Storm           15/01/01
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/01/01

            HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.
       Periods of minor signal degradation were observed over a few
       higher-latitude stations, although nothing particularly
       significant was reported.  Similar conditions should continue
       throughout the next 72 hours.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 10/2400Z JULY
-------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7538  S07W42  305  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7542  N08E05  258  0140 HAX  02  001 ALPHA
7543  S09E41  222  0010 BXO  07  004 BETA
7544  N04E33  230  0010 BXO  03  003 BETA
7541  N22W14  277                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 11 JULY TO 13 JULY
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 10 JULY, 1993
---------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 0038 0046 0056              B4.2        100
 0253 0253 0254                          740
 0332 0332 0333                          120
 1322 1322 1322                          130



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 10 JULY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 10/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **


