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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 09 July
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Fri, 9 Jul 93 21:49:29 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  09 JULY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 09 JULY, 1993
--------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 190, 07/09/93
10.7 FLUX=090.2  90-AVG=110        SSN=063      BKI=2322 3421  BAI=011
BGND-XRAY=B1.6     FLU1=1.5E+05  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=2332 3332  PAI=012
  BOU-DEV=012,036,016,011,020,040,010,006   DEV-AVG=018 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B7.5   @ 0209UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.2   @ 2359UT   XRAY-AVG= B2.8
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 2315UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 2110UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.1%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 0920UT     PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 2150UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55375NT @ 0359UT   BOUTF-MIN=55342NT @ 1654UT  BOUTF-AVG=55364NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+071,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+146NT@ 1509UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-087NT@ 0254UT  G6-AVG=+099,-021,-051
 FLUXFCST=STD:090,090,090;SESC:090,090,090 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,015,015/020,010,010
    KFCST=3334 4232 2334 4332  27DAY-AP=012,015   27DAY-KP=2244 2223 2353 2233
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=**245STRM:0411-2358UTC
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 08 JUL 93 was  68.7.
      The Full Kp Indices for 08 JUL 93 are: 2o 3o 3o 4-   3- 4- 3o 3- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was at very low levels. There were
       no new regions numbered.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       at very low to low levels.  The regions presently on the disk
       exhibit low flare potential.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled
       levels for the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be mostly unsettled levels.

            Event probabilities 10 jul-12 jul

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 10 jul-12 jul

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                30/25/25
                        Minor Storm           15/10/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                25/25/20
                        Minor Storm           20/15/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/01/05

            HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.
       Similar conditions are expected to persist over the next three
       days, through 12 July inclusive.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 09/2400Z JULY
-------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7538  S10W26  302  0020 CRO  06  006 BETA
7541  N22W01  277  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7542  N08E18  258  0150 CSO  03  002 BETA
7543  S08E55  221  0040 HRX  02  003 ALPHA
7544  N04E45  231  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 10 JULY TO 12 JULY
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 09 JULY, 1993
---------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 0230 0230 0231                          110



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 09 JULY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
09/ 0319     0348     0420                LDE    B5.2   61
09/ 1545     1601     1657                LDE    B7.2   72
09/ 1845     1858     2012                LDE    B4.9   87


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 09/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **


