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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 08 July
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Fri, 9 Jul 93 13:52:06 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  08 JULY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 08 JULY, 1993
--------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 189, 07/08/93
10.7 FLUX=093.3  90-AVG=110        SSN=063      BKI=2333 3432  BAI=014
BGND-XRAY=B1.7     FLU1=2.3E+05  FLU10=1.3E+04  PKI=2334 3433  PAI=015
  BOU-DEV=010,037,030,033,025,044,030,017   DEV-AVG=028 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B7.0   @ 1043UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.4   @ 2211UT   XRAY-AVG= B2.2
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 1920UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 0615UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.1%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 2310UT     PCA-MIN= -0.1DB @ 2350UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55373NT @ 0614UT   BOUTF-MIN=55340NT @ 1721UT  BOUTF-AVG=55356NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+083,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+150NT@ 1810UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-082NT@ 0255UT  G6-AVG=+107,-017,-050
 FLUXFCST=STD:090,085,085;SESC:090,085,085 BAI/PAI-FCST=025,020,010/018,015,010
    KFCST=5544 4454 4455 4411  27DAY-AP=009,012   27DAY-KP=3222 2232 2244 2223
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 07 JUL 93 was  70.7.
      The Full Kp Indices for 07 JUL 93 are: 3- 3o 1+ 1+   2- 2- 3- 2- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. No C-class x-ray events have
       occurred in the past 24 hours.  Two new regions were numbered.
       They are Regions 7543 (S08E69) and 7544 (N03E62).  Both are
       magnetically simple.  An active prominence and surging was
       observed near S13W90, associated with departed Region 7530.

       STD: Ca XV emissions on the southwest limb near departing
       Region 7530 increased to strong levels today.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low.  Regions presently on the disk do not possess
       significant flare potential.

            The geomagnetic field has been unsettled to active for the
       past 24 hours.  These conditions are attributed to effects of
       a high speed solar wind stream from either of a pair of
       low latitude, positive polarity coronal holes on the
       solar disk.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be active.  Rationale for the forecast includes
       a low latitude southern coronal hole (positive polarity) near
       central meridian on 6 July, and persistence.

            Event probabilities 09 jul-11 jul

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 09 jul-11 jul

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                30/30/50
                        Minor Storm           25/20/01
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/10/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                20/25/01
                        Minor Storm           30/25/50
                        Major-Severe Storm    25/20/01

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all
       regions.  Minor signal degradation may be observed during the
       local night sectors of 09 July over the higher latitude paths.
       All other paths should see near-normal propagation.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 08/2400Z JULY
-------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7538  S09W15  305  0030 CAO  09  007 BETA
7541  N22E11  279  0000 AXX  01  001 ALPHA
7542  N08E32  258  0150 CSO  05  003 BETA
7543  S08E68  222  0020 HRX  01  001 ALPHA
7544  N03E61  229  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7540  N06W87  017                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 09 JULY TO 11 JULY
NMBR LAT    LO
7525 S17   188


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 08 JULY, 1993
---------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
NONE



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 08 JULY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 08/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
16   N50E08 N01W53 N06W56 N65W14  313  EXT   POS   034 10830A
18   S25W09 S30W11 S15W46 S04W24  318  ISO   POS   013 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


