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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 07 July
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Wed, 7 Jul 93 23:57:07 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  07 JULY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 07 JULY, 1993
--------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 188, 07/07/93
10.7 FLUX=093.4  90-AVG=111        SSN=063      BKI=3321 2233  BAI=010
BGND-XRAY=B1.7     FLU1=1.5E+05  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=3311 2232  PAI=008
  BOU-DEV=024,025,013,009,015,010,023,020   DEV-AVG=017 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C1.6   @ 1137UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.4   @ 2154UT   XRAY-AVG= B2.4
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 0705UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 1010UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.3DB @ 1635UT     PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 0025UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55366NT @ 0142UT   BOUTF-MIN=55323NT @ 1827UT  BOUTF-AVG=55353NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+074,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+127NT@ 1605UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-106NT@ 0332UT  G6-AVG=+098,-020,-052
 FLUXFCST=STD:090,090,085;SESC:090,090,085 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,015,015/015,015,015
    KFCST=2234 1222 2234 1222  27DAY-AP=023,009   27DAY-KP=1232 2256 3222 2232
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 06 JUL 93 was  67.3.
      The Full Kp Indices for 06 JUL 93 are: 2- 1+ 1o 3o   2+ 1+ 2o 2- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low by virtue of three, small
       uncorrelated C-class xray events.

       STD: Moderate Ca XV emissions were again observed on the
       southwest limb in the vicinity of Region 7530.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled
       levels for the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled.

            Event probabilities 08 jul-10 jul

                             Class M    05/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 08 jul-10 jul

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                30/30/30
                        Minor Storm           15/15/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                30/30/30
                        Minor Storm           15/15/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

            HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.
       No changes are expected over the next three days.  Normal
       propagation should persist through 10 July inclusive.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 07/2400Z JULY
-------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7530  S11W88  031  0110 CAO  06  004 BETA
7538  S10W02  305  0030 CRO  09  005 BETA
7540  N06W74  017  0000 AXX  01  002 ALPHA
7541  N22E25  278  0000 AXX  01  001 ALPHA
7542  N08E44  259  0160 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 08 JULY TO 10 JULY
NMBR LAT    LO
7525 S17   188


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 07 JULY, 1993
---------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 0015 0016 0016                          130
 0326 0326 0326                          220
 1305 1305 1305                          120
 1347 1347 1348                          220
 1429 1429 1429                          170



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 07 JULY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 07/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
          NO DATA


**  End of Daily Report  **


