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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 06 July
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Tue, 6 Jul 93 23:13:52 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  06 JULY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 06 JULY, 1993
--------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 187, 07/06/93
10.7 FLUX=095.2  90-AVG=111        SSN=080      BKI=0023 2121  BAI=005
BGND-XRAY=B1.7     FLU1=4.9E+05  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=2113 2122  PAI=007
  BOU-DEV=001,001,010,028,013,006,013,006   DEV-AVG=009 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C1.1   @ 1113UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.4   @ 2310UT   XRAY-AVG= B2.4
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 1525UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 1655UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.2%
  PCA-MAX= +5.0DB @ 1830UT     PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 0700UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55363NT @ 2359UT   BOUTF-MIN=55339NT @ 1718UT  BOUTF-AVG=55353NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+081,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+121NT@ 2102UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-063NT@ 2023UT  G6-AVG=+104,-019,-046
 FLUXFCST=STD:095,090,090;SESC:095,090,090 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,015,015/020,015,015
    KFCST=2234 1222 2234 1222  27DAY-AP=008,023   27DAY-KP=3322 2222 1232 2256
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=**MAGSI:31NT@1028UTC;**245STRM:1232-2234UTC
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 05 JUL 93 is not available.
      The Full Kp Indices for 05 JUL 93 are not available.


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Region 7537 (N10W72) had
       the only flare worthy of note, a C1/SF at 06/1005UT. One other
       C-class xray event, an uncorrelated C1, was observed. Region
       7530 (S12W75) continued to decay as it approached the west limb.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low. Region 7530 still has an outside chance of producing an
       isolated M-class flare before it exits the disk.

       STD: Moderate Ca XV emissions were observed on the southwest
       limb near S12 with another weaker area of emission near the
       solar equator.

            The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet levels
       for the past 24 hours. A 31 nanotesla sudden impulse was
       recorded at 06/1028UT, but the field quickly returned to
       quiet levels.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be mostly unsettled for the entire forecast period.

            Event probabilities 07 jul-09 jul

                             Class M    10/10/05
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 07 jul-09 jul

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                30/30/30
                        Minor Storm           15/15/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                30/30/30
                        Minor Storm           15/15/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

            HF propagation conditions were normal to above normal over
       all regions.  Similar conditions are expected over the next
       three days.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 06/2400Z JULY
-------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7530  S11W75  031  0190 CAO  06  007 BETA
7537  N10W72  028  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7538  S10E12  304  0050 CAO  09  005 BETA
7540  N06W62  018  0020 BXO  06  005 BETA
7541  N22E37  279  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7542  N08E57  259  0150 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7534  S17W54  010                    PLAGE
7535  N01W49  005                    PLAGE
7539  S17W45  001                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 07 JULY TO 09 JULY
NMBR LAT    LO
7525 S17   188


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 06 JULY, 1993
---------------------------------------------------
A.  ENERGETIC EVENTS:
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 0725 0725 0729 7542  N06E63       SF    340
 1408 1408 1409                          190
 1427 1428 1430                          500
 1438 1443 1445              B4.2        580
 1527 1527 1529                         3100



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 06 JULY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 06/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
16   N55E37 N03W27 N04W30 N65E07  315  EXT   POS   041 10830A
18   S29E19 S33W02 S27W17 S06W04  318  ISO   POS   014 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


