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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 05 July
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Tue, 6 Jul 93 0:47:38 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  05 JULY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 05 JULY, 1993
--------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 186, 07/05/93
10.7 FLUX=100.5  90-AVG=112        SSN=099      BKI=2210 1010  BAI=002
BGND-XRAY=B2.0     FLU1=2.7E+05  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=2311 2122  PAI=006
  BOU-DEV=015,018,008,002,006,004,008,004   DEV-AVG=008 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C1.4   @ 2329UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.8   @ 1257UT   XRAY-AVG= B3.2
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 2325UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 2215UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.1%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 2355UT     PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 2250UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55368NT @ 1400UT   BOUTF-MIN=55328NT @ 1743UT  BOUTF-AVG=55352NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+074,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+117NT@ 1637UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-081NT@ 0312UT  G6-AVG=+098,-019,-049
 FLUXFCST=STD:100,095,095;SESC:100,095,095 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,015,015/010,020,015
    KFCST=2234 1222 2234 1222  27DAY-AP=014,008   27DAY-KP=4433 3332 3322 2222
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 04 JUL 93 is not available.
      The Full Kp Indices for 04 JUL 93 are: .  3- 3- 3-   1+ 2+ 2- 3- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Region 7530 (S11W60) was able
       to produce only a single C-class flare over the past 24 hours.
       Region 7542 (N08E71) was numbered.

       STD: Region 7530 still has some visible optical complexity,
       but has simplified in magnetic aspects to a point where the
       potential for major flares is reduced.  The likelyhood of
       observing a major flare from this region before it departs the
       west limb on the 8th of July is now rather remote.  However,
       there remains a fair possibility it may support a minor
       M-class event before it leaves the disk.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low. Region 7530 still has the best chance to produce C-class
       flares and an isolated M-class flare.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for
       the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled for the entire period.

            Event probabilities 06 jul-08 jul

                             Class M    20/15/10
                             Class X    05/01/01
                             Proton     05/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 06 jul-08 jul

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                25/30/30
                        Minor Storm           10/15/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                30/30/30
                        Minor Storm           15/15/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

            HF propagation conditions were normal to slightly above
       normal over all regions.  Good to very good propagation was
       observed over the low and middle latitudes, while high and
       polar latitude paths saw fair to occasionally good propagation
       throughout the period.  A slight elevation in levels of
       geomagnetic and auroral activity on 07 and 08 July should not
       significantly affect propagation quality.  Near-normal
       propagation should persist over all regions throughout the next
       three days.  High and polar latitude paths might see some
       localized sporadic minor signal degradation during the local
       night sectors.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 05/2400Z JULY
-------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7529  S12W88  057  0120 HSX  03  001 ALPHA
7530  S11W60  029  0170 DAI  08  012 BETA
7537  N10W55  024  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7538  S09E26  303  0070 DAO  08  007 BETA
7540  N06W46  015  0040 DRO  06  006 BETA
7541  N22E51  278  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7542  N08E70  259  0160 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7534  S17W41  010                    PLAGE
7535  N01W36  005                    PLAGE
7539  S17W32  001                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 06 JULY TO 08 JULY
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 05 JULY, 1993
---------------------------------------------------
A.  ENERGETIC EVENTS:
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 2240 2241 2241                          100



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 05 JULY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 05/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
16   N58E58 N02W06 N20W11 N59E21  311  EXT   POS   032 10830A
18   S28E27 S28E27 S19W00 S08E18  319  ISO   POS   003 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


