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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 04 July
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Mon, 5 Jul 93 0:02:20 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  04 JULY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 04 JULY, 1993
--------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 185, 07/04/93
10.7 FLUX=106.5  90-AVG=112        SSN=104      BKI=3322 2212  BAI=008
BGND-XRAY=B3.5     FLU1=2.8E+05  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=*333 1223  PAI=009
  BOU-DEV=023,031,010,017,013,010,008,013   DEV-AVG=015 NT     SWF=03:035
 XRAY-MAX= M1.8   @ 1129UT    XRAY-MIN= B2.4   @ 0537UT   XRAY-AVG= C1.2
NEUTN-MAX= +001%  @ 1850UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 1005UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.5%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 2220UT     PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 1500UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55366NT @ 1419UT   BOUTF-MIN=55319NT @ 1752UT  BOUTF-AVG=55349NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+070,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+122NT@ 1649UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-108NT@ 0136UT  G6-AVG=+094,-022,-055
 FLUXFCST=STD:105,105,100;SESC:105,105,100 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,015,010/010,010,020
    KFCST=2234 1222 2234 1222  27DAY-AP=020,014   27DAY-KP=3234 5433 4433 3332
 WARNINGS=*SWF;*MAJFLR;*PROTON
   ALERTS=**MINFLR:M1.8/2B@1129UTC(7530);**MINFLR:M1.6/1B@0750(7530)
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 03 JUL 93 was  70.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 03 JUL 93 are not available.


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was moderate. Region 7530 (S12W48)
       produced an M1.6/1B flare at 04/0750UT and an M1.8/2B flare at
       04/1129UT, as well as two class C flares. This region has grown
       slowly over the past 24 hours but has simplified magnetically.
       Regions 7540 (N05W34) and 7541 (N22E63) were numbered today.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low to moderate. Region 7530 has the best chance for isolated
       class M flares and an outside chance for a major flare.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled
       levels for the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled for the entire period.

            Event probabilities 05 jul-07 jul

                             Class M    40/40/35
                             Class X    10/10/05
                             Proton     10/10/05
                             PCAF       Yellow

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 05 jul-07 jul

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                30/30/30
                        Minor Storm           15/15/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                30/30/30
                        Minor Storm           15/15/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

            HF propagation conditions returned to normal over all
       regions today.  Similar good conditions are expected to persist
       for the next three days (through 07 July inclusive).


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 04/2400Z JULY
-------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7529  S12W77  060  0130 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7530  S12W48  031  0250 DAI  10  018 BETA
7534  S17W28  011  0000 AXX  01  002 ALPHA
7537  N10W44  027  0010 BXO  04  003 BETA
7538  S09E38  305  0090 DAO  08  006 BETA
7540  N05W34  017  0010 HAX  02  002 ALPHA
7541  N22E63  280  0030 HRX  01  002 ALPHA
7535  N01W23  006                    PLAGE
7536  S09W59  042                    PLAGE
7539  S17W19  002                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 05 JULY TO 07 JULY
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 04 JULY, 1993
---------------------------------------------------
A.  ENERGETIC EVENTS:
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 0740 0750 0756 7530  S16W38 M1.6  1B    150 25
 1102 1129 1242 7530  S11W37 M1.8  2B



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 04 JULY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
04/ 1102     1129     1242       S11W37   LDE    M1.8  100
04/B1704             B1755       S15E90   EPL


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 04/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
15   S20W44 S30W57 S25W62 S17W58  036  ISO   NEG   004 10830A
16   N42E47 N20E04 N25E01 N51E28  320  ISO   POS   012 10830A
18   S32E41 S32E41 S24E22 S08E35  317  ISO   POS   007 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


