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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 03 July
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Sun, 4 Jul 93 0:41:10 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  03 JULY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 03 JULY, 1993
--------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 184, 07/03/93
10.7 FLUX=110.5  90-AVG=112        SSN=095      BKI=4342 3223  BAI=015
BGND-XRAY=B3.1     FLU1=*.*E+**  FLU10=*.*E+**  PKI=5442 3223  PAI=020
  BOU-DEV=048,037,059,015,021,019,017,021   DEV-AVG=023 NT     SWF=01:011
 XRAY-MAX= M1.6   @ 1102UT    XRAY-MIN= B2.8   @ 0225UT   XRAY-AVG= B7.2
NEUTN-MAX= +001%  @ 1830UT   NEUTN-MIN= -004%  @ 0510UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.8%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1555UT     PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 1430UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55407NT @ 0110UT   BOUTF-MIN=55333NT @ 1921UT  BOUTF-AVG=55362NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+079,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+169NT@ 1637UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-125NT@ 0344UT  G6-AVG=+105,-027,-071
 FLUXFCST=STD:110,105,105;SESC:110,105,105 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,010,010/015,010,010
    KFCST=3344 3332 2233 3322  27DAY-AP=017,020   27DAY-KP=3343 3334 3234 5433
 WARNINGS=*SWF;*MAJFLR;*PROTON;*PCA
   ALERTS=**MINFLR:M1.6/1N@1102,S13W26(7530)
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 02 JUL 93 was  75.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 02 JUL 93 are: 5- 3+ 3- 3+   4- 3o 4- 5+ 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was moderate. Region 7530 (S12W34)
       produced an M1.6/1N flare at 03/1102Z. No significant growth or
       decay was noted in this region. Region 7538 (S09E51) displayed
       moderate overall growth, but produced no flares. New Region
       7539 (S16W06) was numbered.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low to moderate. Region 7530 is capable of producing an isolated
       M-class flare. There is also a slight chance for a major flare
       from this region.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels
       for the past 24 hours. Minor storming occurred from
       02/2100Z-03/0300Z at some middle and high latitude stations.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be mostly unsettled.

            Event probabilities 04 jul-06 jul

                             Class M    40/40/40
                             Class X    10/10/10
                             Proton     10/10/10
                             PCAF       Yellow

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 04 jul-06 jul

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                30/30/20
                        Minor Storm           15/15/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                30/30/25
                        Minor Storm           15/15/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over most
       regions.  Some middle latitude regions, together with the high
       and polar latitudes, experienced below-normal to near useless
       propagation during the local evening and early morning hours of
       02/03 July.  Conditions rapidly improved after approximately
       15:00 UTC and were near-normal to slightly below-normal over
       these regions by the end of the UT day.  Near-normal
       propagation is expected over the next three days, through
       06 July inclusive.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 03/2400Z JULY
-------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7529  S12W65  061  0170 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7530  S12W34  030  0180 DAI  09  023 BETA-GAMMA
7534  S17W18  014  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7537  N11W31  027  0010 HRX  01  002 ALPHA
7538  S09E51  305  0080 DAO  06  006 BETA
7539  S17W06  002  0000 AXX  01  002 ALPHA
7533  N20W80  076                    PLAGE
7535  N01W10  006                    PLAGE
7536  S09W46  042                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 04 JULY TO 06 JULY
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 03 JULY, 1993
---------------------------------------------------
A.  ENERGETIC EVENTS:
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 1036 1102 1110 7530  S13W26 M1.6  1N



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 03 JULY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 03/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **


