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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 02 July
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Fri, 2 Jul 93 22:20:58 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  02 JULY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 02 JULY, 1993
--------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 183, 07/02/93
10.7 FLUX=109.9  90-AVG=112        SSN=073      BKI=5323 4335  BAI=023
BGND-XRAY=B2.9     FLU1=1.6E+06  FLU10=1.0E+04  PKI=5333 4345  PAI=025
  BOU-DEV=092,022,019,027,058,028,025,113   DEV-AVG=048 NT     SWF=01:013
 XRAY-MAX= M4.3   @ 1322UT    XRAY-MIN= B2.2   @ 0049UT   XRAY-AVG= B8.7
NEUTN-MAX= +000%  @ 2250UT   NEUTN-MIN= -005%  @ 1110UT  NEUTN-AVG= -1.5%
  PCA-MAX= +0.4DB @ 1330UT     PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 0320UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55403NT @ 2359UT   BOUTF-MIN=55321NT @ 1921UT  BOUTF-AVG=55356NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+072,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+141NT@ 2031UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-121NT@ 2305UT  G6-AVG=+095,-025,-062
 FLUXFCST=STD:110,110,105;SESC:110,110,105 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,015,015/015,012,010
    KFCST=3344 3332 3344 3332  27DAY-AP=039,017   27DAY-KP=6655 4343 3343 3334
 WARNINGS=*SWF;*MAJFLR;*PROTON;*PCA;*AURMIDWCH;*GSTRM
   ALERTS=**MINFLR:M4.3/2B@1322UTC,S11W14(7530);**TENFLR:400SFU@1314UTC
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 01 JUL 93 was  90.5.
      The Full Kp Indices for 01 JUL 93 are: 3+ 4o 4- 4-   4+ 3- 3o 4- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was moderate. Region 7530 (S11W21)
       produced an M4.3/2B flare at 02/1321Z associated with a 400 sfu
       tenflare. New Regions 7537 (N11W18) and 7538 (S09E66) were
       numbered.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low to moderate. Region 7530 may produce an M-class flare.
       There is also a slight to fair chance for a major flare from
       this region.

            The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels
       for the past 24 hours.  STD: Brief minor storming has been
       reported over many middle and high latitude regions.  However,
       most of the activity has been at active levels.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be at mostly unsettled levels.  STD: Brief minor
       storming may continue over the night-sectors for the next 24
       hours.

            Event probabilities 03 jul-05 jul

                             Class M    40/40/40
                             Class X    10/10/10
                             Proton     10/10/10
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 03 jul-05 jul

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                30/30/20
                        Minor Storm           15/15/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                30/30/25
                        Minor Storm           15/15/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal to below-normal
       over all regions.  Middle to polar latitude paths have
       experienced minor to occasionally major signal degradation
       associated with the current geomagnetic disturbance.  The
       last three to six hours of the UT day were the worst, with
       polar and high latitude regions near the auroral zones
       essentially blacked out or with major signal degradation.
       Similar sporadic periods of strong degradation are expected
       throughout the local night sectors during the next 24 hours.
       As the disturbance wanes over the next 24 to 48 hours,
       propagation should begin to gradually improve to near normal
       by about 05 July.  The M4.3/2B tenflare observed today was
       associated with a strong, but fairly brief short wave fadeout
       affecting daylit paths and frequencies up to 23 MHz.  Similar
       SWFs will be possible over the next three days.  There is also
       a slight lingering threat for possible proton-related PCA
       enhancements affecting polar and high-latitude path propagation
       should a major proton flare erupt from the region which is now
       well-placed for producing such activity.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 02/2400Z JULY
-------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7529  S12W51  060  0180 HSX  03  001 ALPHA
7530  S11W21  030  0130 DSI  09  025 BETA-GAMMA
7537  N11W18  027  0010 AXX  02  003 ALPHA
7538  S09E66  303  0040 CRO  04  004 BETA
7533  N20W67  076                    PLAGE
7534  S14W04  013                    PLAGE
7535  N01E03  006                    PLAGE
7536  S09W33  042                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 03 JULY TO 05 JULY
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 02 JULY, 1993
---------------------------------------------------
A.  ENERGETIC EVENTS:
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 1311 1321 1326 7530  S11W14 M4.3  2B        400



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 02 JULY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 02/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
15   S55W17 S61W65 S61W65 S25W42  054  ISO   NEG   029 10830A
16   N40E66 N12E26 N12E26 N43E57  329  ISO   POS   015 10830A
17   N29W43 N20W54 N21W63 N33W46  093  ISO   POS   001 10830A
18   S30E86 S30E86 S12E44 S12E44  309  ISO   POS   012 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


