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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 01 July
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Thu, 1 Jul 93 20:27:57 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  01 JULY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 01 JULY, 1993
--------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 182, 07/01/93
10.7 FLUX=108.1  90-AVG=112        SSN=102      BKI=3433 3334  BAI=018
BGND-XRAY=B2.2     FLU1=3.5E+05  FLU10=1.3E+04  PKI=3444 4334  PAI=021
  BOU-DEV=033,045,033,035,035,031,021,050   DEV-AVG=035 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C2.1   @ 0050UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.9   @ 1955UT   XRAY-AVG= B3.1
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 1445UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 2330UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.4%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 2100UT     PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 1520UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55372NT @ 0531UT   BOUTF-MIN=55307NT @ 1908UT  BOUTF-AVG=55350NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+069,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+138NT@ 1556UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-125NT@ 0429UT  G6-AVG=+093,-024,-066
 FLUXFCST=STD:105,105,100;SESC:105,105,100 BAI/PAI-FCST=020,015,015/015,012,010
    KFCST=4454 4332 3344 3332  27DAY-AP=048,039   27DAY-KP=4466 4455 6655 4343
 WARNINGS=*SWF;*MAJFLR;*PROTON;*AURMIDWCH;*GSTRM
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 30 JUN 93 was  90.3.
      The Full Kp Indices for 30 JUN 93 are: 3o 2+ 3o 2-   2o 3o 2+ 3- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Region 7530 (S11W08) produced a
       C2/SF flare at 01/0257Z. No significant changes occurred within
       the Region in terms of growth or structure. The same was true
       for Region 7529 (S12W37). No new regions were assigned.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       mostly low with Region 7530 providing a slight to fair chance
       for an isolated M-class flare.

            The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels
       for the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be at unsettled to active levels during the first
       day as coronal hole effects continue. The field is expected to
       decline to unsettled levels for the rest of the period.

            Event probabilities 02 jul-04 jul

                             Class M    30/30/30
                             Class X    05/05/05
                             Proton     05/05/05
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 02 jul-04 jul

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                40/30/30
                        Minor Storm           20/15/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    15/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                40/30/30
                        Minor Storm           30/15/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    20/05/05

            HF propagation conditions were normal over most regions.
       Conditions were poorest on transpolar and transauroral circuits
       (particularly the latter).  A few reports of significant HF
       signal degradation was reported for transauroral paths,
       although most regions have reported only minor signal
       degradation.  Similar conditions are expected over the next 24
       hours before beginning to stabilize as this disturbance wanes.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 01/2400Z JULY
-------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7529  S12W37  059  0200 HSX  03  001 ALPHA
7530  S11W08  030  0210 EAI  13  041 BETA-GAMMA
7534  S14E09  013  0010 BXO  04  006 BETA
7535  N01E16  006  0010 AXX  02  003 ALPHA
7536  S09W20  042  0000 AXX  01  001 ALPHA
7531  S00W83  105                    PLAGE
7532  N09W88  110                    PLAGE
7533  N20W54  076                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 02 JULY TO 04 JULY
NMBR LAT    LO
7522 N21   280


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 01 JULY, 1993
---------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 1641 1645 1647 7530  S12W07 B5.1  SF    210
 1650 1655 1657              B3.7        260
 1857 1857 1857                          610



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 01 JULY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 01/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **


