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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Message-Id: <9308161604.AA22049@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: WARNING: Potential Geomagnetic Storm Warning - 16 Aug
To: solar-warnings@lut.fi
Date: Mon, 16 Aug 93 10:04:41 MDT
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.3 PL11]
Reply-To: SOLAR-WARNINGS Distribution List <solar-warnings@lut.fi>
X-Sequence: 137
Status: OR

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                  POTENTIAL MINOR GEOMAGNETIC STORM WARNING

                         ISSUED: 06:00 UT, 16 AUGUST

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    HIGH RISK PERIOD:  16 - 17 August  (UT days)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD:  16 - 18 August

POTENTIAL LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE STORM INTENSITY:  MINOR
      POTENTIAL HIGH LATITUDE STORM INTENSITY:  MINOR - MAJOR

      POTENTIAL DURATION OF GEOMAGNETIC STORM:  36 TO 48 HOURS

POTENTIAL PEAK LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE K-INDEX VALUES:  6
      POTENTIAL PEAK HIGH LATITUDE K-INDEX VALUES:  7

  EXPECTED DOMINATING LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE K-INDEX:  4 - 5
        EXPECTED DOMINATING HIGH LATITUDE K-INDEX:  5 - 6

   POTENTIAL FOR LOW LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION:  MODERATE
        POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION:  MINOR
          EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS:  GOOD - FAIR

POTENTIAL FOR MIDDLE LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION:  HIGH
        POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION:  MINOR
          EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS:  GOOD - OCCASIONALLY VERY POOR

  POTENTIAL FOR HIGH LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION:  HIGH
        POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION:  MINOR - MAJOR
          EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS:  POOR TO NEAR USELESS

POTENTIAL RISK FOR GEOSYNCHRONOUS MAGNETOPAUSE CROSSINGS:  20% PROBABLE

SUSPECTED SOURCE OF OBSERVED/EXPECTED ACTIVITY:
     Well-placed recurrent coronal hole.


---------------------------------       ---------------------------------
EST. POTENTIAL GEOMAGNETIC IMPACT       EST. POTENTIAL IONOSPHERIC IMPACT
---------------------------------       ---------------------------------
       SEVERE STORM : 15 %                 LOW LATITUDES : MINOR
        MAJOR STORM : 20 %              MIDDLE LATITUDES : MINOR
        MINOR STORM : 40 %                HIGH LATITUDES : MINOR - MAJOR
     ACTIVE OR LESS : 25 %               POLAR LATITUDES : MINOR - MAJOR
---------------------------------       ---------------------------------
 PROBABLE SI ASSOCIATION : 10 %          ESTIMATED GLOBAL IMPACT: MINOR

ESTIMATED FORECAST PEAK PLANETARY 24-HOUR A-INDEX DURING STORM: 35


**  End of Warning  **


