From solar-warnings-request@lut.fi Mon Aug 16 19:22:52 1993
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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Message-Id: <9308161618.AA22920@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: AURORA WATCH: Middle Latitude Auroral Activity WATCH - 16 Aug
To: solar-warnings@lut.fi
Date: Mon, 16 Aug 93 10:18:35 MDT
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.3 PL11]
Reply-To: SOLAR-WARNINGS Distribution List <solar-warnings@lut.fi>
X-Sequence: 138
Status: OR

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                    MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

                          ISSUED: 06:30 UT, 16 AUGUST

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\


VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC ON 18 AUGUST

MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 16 - 17 AUGUST (UT days)

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES FOR NEXT 3 DAYS: 35, 30, 20 (16 AUG - 18 AUG)
(INPUT INTO THE PREDICTIVE AURORA SOFTWARE *)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY:  MODERATE

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE:  NONE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES:  GOOD

AURORAL ACTIVITY MAY BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

        THE NORTHERN U.S. STATES FROM WASHINGTON STATE TO CENTRAL IDAHO
        TO MONTANA OR NORTHERN WYOMING TO SOUTH DAKOTA TO SOUTHERN
        MINNESOTA TO WISCONSIN TO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND POSSIBLY NORTHERN
        OHIO TO PENNSYLVANIA TO NEW JERSEY.

ACTIVITY MAY ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

        U.K. TO THE NORTHERN EUROPEAN REGIONS INCLUDING MUCH OF THE
        NORTHERN REGIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS, GERMANY, POLAND AND
        NORTH-CENTRAL RUSSIA.  SOUTHERN REGIONS OF AUSTRALIA AND NEW
        ZEALAND MAY ALSO SPOT SPORADIC EPISODIC ACTIVITY.

* Contact: Oler@Rho.Uleth.CA or COler@Solar.Stanford.Edu for more information
           regarding the Auroral Activity Prediction and Simulation Software.


SYNOPSIS...

     A well-placed solar coronal hole is producing a high-speed solar-wind
     stream which is proving quite geoeffective.  Levels of auroral
     activity have increased notably over the last 24 hours and could
     become visible over many middle latitude regions over the next day or
     two under dark skies.  The lack of any lunar interference makes this
     an optimum period for observing activity.

     This WATCH will remain active until 19:00 UT on 18 August when it will
     either be updated or allowed to expire.


**  End of Watch  **


From solar-warnings-request@lut.fi Tue Aug 17 02:26:28 1993
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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Message-Id: <9308162323.AA24506@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: AURORA WARNING: Middle Latitude Auroral Activity WARNING
To: solar-warnings@lut.fi
Date: Mon, 16 Aug 93 17:23:50 MDT
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.3 PL11]
Reply-To: SOLAR-WARNINGS Distribution List <solar-warnings@lut.fi>
X-Sequence: 139
Status: OR

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                   MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING

                     WATCH UPGRADED: 23:00 UT, 16 AUGUST

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\


VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC ON 18 AUGUST

    HIGH RISK PERIOD: 17 Aug          (UT days)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 17 Aug - 18 Aug

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES FOR NEXT 3 DAYS: 35, 22, 15, (17 - 19 AUG)
(INPUT INTO THE PREDICTIVE AURORA SOFTWARE *)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY:  MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: 12 TO HOURS.

POTENTIAL LUNAR INTERFERENCE: NONE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES:  GOOD - VERY GOOD

APPROXIMATE OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS (LOCAL TIME): NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

AURORAL ACTIVITY MAY BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

        THE NORTHERN U.S. STATES FROM WASHINGTON STATE TO CENTRAL IDAHO
        TO MONTANA OR NORTHERN WYOMING TO SOUTH DAKOTA TO SOUTHERN
        MINNESOTA TO WISCONSIN TO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND POSSIBLY NORTHERN
        OHIO TO PENNSYLVANIA TO NEW JERSEY.

ACTIVITY MAY ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

        U.K. TO THE NORTHERN EUROPEAN REGIONS INCLUDING MUCH OF THE
        NORTHERN REGIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS, GERMANY, POLAND AND
        NORTH-CENTRAL RUSSIA.  SOUTHERN REGIONS OF AUSTRALIA AND NEW
        ZEALAND MAY ALSO SPOT SPORADIC EPISODIC ACTIVITY.


* Contact: Oler@Rho.Uleth.CA or COler@Solar.Stanford.Edu for more information
           regarding the Auroral Activity Prediction and Simulation Software.

SYNOPSIS...

     A minor auroral storm is in progress at the present time.  Periods of
     strong to intense auroral activity have been observed over the high and
     polar latitude regions.  Expansion of the auroral oval has also been
     observed with this activity.  These combined effects together with the
     lack of lunar interference could make this a good opportunity to observe
     auroral activity from the middle latitudes.  To take best advantage of
     these conditions, find a dark-sky site away from city lights for
     observing the activity.  Activity should begin decaying by tommorrow
     morning (15:00 to 18:00 UTC on 17 August), so this will likely be the
     last good evening to observe the activity associated with this
     disturbance.

     For those with our Auroral Oval Simulation Software, optimal input
     values of between 30 and 40 should be used for this evening.

     This warning will remain active until 19:00 UT on 18 August when it
     will either be updated or allowed to expire.


**  End of Warning  **


