From solar-daily-request@lut.fi Thu Jul  1 05:51:03 1993
Received: from lut.fi by cs.tut.fi with SMTP id AA23537
  (5.65c/IDA-1.4.4 for <rko@cs.tut.fi>); Thu, 1 Jul 1993 05:50:59 +0300
Received: by lut.fi with TULP
	(5.65c/IDA-1.4.4/Kim-2.2) id AA15252; Thu, 1 Jul 1993 05:50:30 +0300
Received: from rho.uleth.ca by lut.fi with SMTP
 (5.65c/IDA-1.4.4/Kim-2.2) id AA15212; Thu, 1 Jul 1993 05:49:30 +0300
Return-Path: <oler@rho.uleth.ca>
Received: by rho.uleth.ca (5.57/Ultrix3.0-C)
 id AA22967; Wed, 30 Jun 93 20:49:05 -0600
From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Message-Id: <9307010249.AA22967@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 30 June
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Wed, 30 Jun 93 20:48:59 MDT
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.3 PL11]
Reply-To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
X-Sequence: 861
Status: OR

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  30 JUNE, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 30 JUNE, 1993
--------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 181, 06/30/93
10.7 FLUX=116.4  90-AVG=112        SSN=095      BKI=2221 2323  BAI=008
BGND-XRAY=B2.5     FLU1=4.3E+05  FLU10=1.8E+04  PKI=3232 2323  PAI=011
  BOU-DEV=017,012,014,005,010,023,015,023   DEV-AVG=014 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C2.0   @ 0506UT    XRAY-MIN= B2.1   @ 2201UT   XRAY-AVG= B3.3
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 1455UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 2345UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.2%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2250UT     PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 0345UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55364NT @ 1257UT   BOUTF-MIN=55332NT @ 1814UT  BOUTF-AVG=55351NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+077,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+167NT@ 1639UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-088NT@ 0036UT  G6-AVG=+101,-022,-053
 FLUXFCST=STD:115,110,110;SESC:115,110,110 BAI/PAI-FCST=025,020,015/030,025,015
    KFCST=4445 5443 4454 4332  27DAY-AP=017,048   27DAY-KP=3244 4333 4466 4455
 WARNINGS=*SWF;*MAJFLR;*PROTON;*AURMIDWCH;*GSTRM
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 29 JUN 93 was  83.5.
      The Full Kp Indices for 29 JUN 93 are: 2- 2+ 2- 4-   3o 2+ 3- 3- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Region 7530 (S11E05) was stable
       and produced a single C-class subflare. The region showed no
       significant growth or decay while remaining moderately complex
       in magnetic aspects. No new regions were assigned.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low to moderate. Region 7530 is capable of M-class activity. It
       also poses a slight threat for an isolated major flare.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels
       for the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be at active to minor storm levels during the
       first two days due to coronal hole effects. The field is
       expected to decline to unsettled levels during the final day
       as coronal hole effects subside.

            Event probabilities 01 jul-03 jul

                             Class M    40/40/40
                             Class X    05/05/05
                             Proton     05/05/05
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 01 jul-03 jul

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                40/40/25
                        Minor Storm           20/20/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    15/15/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                40/40/25
                        Minor Storm           30/30/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    20/20/05

            HF propagation conditions were normal to above normal
       over all regions.  Numerous stations reported occasional
       enhancements in MUF by as much as 30 percent above normal
       values.  Propagation is expected to begin deteriorating
       gradually over the next 24 hours.  Fair to occasionally very
       poor propagation is expected over the high and polar latitude
       paths, while middle latitudes should see good to fair
       propagation.  Low latitudes should remain essentially normal
       throughout the next 72 hours.  Conditions should begin
       improving over all affected regions by 03 July assuming this
       disturbance arrives on schedule.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 30/2400Z JUNE
-------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7528  N02W91  127  0000 AXX  01  002 ALPHA
7529  S12W25  061  0220 CSO  06  010 BETA
7530  S11E05  031  0280 EAI  14  040 BETA-GAMMA
7534  S14E23  013  0010 BXO  02  003 BETA
7536  S07W06  042  0010 BXO  03  003 BETA
7531  S00W70  106                    PLAGE
7532  N09W75  111                    PLAGE
7533  N20W41  077                    PLAGE
7535  N03E29  007                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 01 JULY TO 03 JULY
NMBR LAT    LO
7522 N21   280


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 30 JUNE, 1993
---------------------------------------------------
POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 30 JUNE, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 30/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
15   S53E07 S60E03 S30W45 S18W37  055  ISO   NEG   029 10830A
16   N28E85 S10E55 S05E42 N35E85  334  ISO   POS   019 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


