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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 29 June
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Tue, 29 Jun 93 22:12:03 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  29 JUNE, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 29 JUNE, 1993
--------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 180, 06/29/93
10.7 FLUX=122.6  90-AVG=112        SSN=116      BKI=2223 3322  BAI=010
BGND-XRAY=B2.7     FLU1=1.3E+06  FLU10=2.1E+04  PKI=2224 3233  PAI=011
  BOU-DEV=017,015,010,027,038,021,013,016   DEV-AVG=019 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C1.3   @ 0754UT    XRAY-MIN= B2.5   @ 2356UT   XRAY-AVG= B3.7
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 0215UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 1050UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.3%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1835UT     PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 2350UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55364NT @ 0433UT   BOUTF-MIN=55317NT @ 1851UT  BOUTF-AVG=55350NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+084,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+149NT@ 1546UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-073NT@ 2359UT  G6-AVG=+109,-018,-045
 FLUXFCST=STD:125,125,120;SESC:125,125,120 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,025,020/015,030,025
    KFCST=3334 3333 4445 5443  27DAY-AP=006,017   27DAY-KP=1123 2222 3244 4333
 WARNINGS=*SWF;*MAJFLR;*PROTON;*AURMIDWCH
   ALERTS=**245STRM:0541-1438UTC
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 28 JUN 93 was  80.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 28 JUN 93 are: 2- 1- 1o 2-   2- 2+ 3- 2- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Two C-class subflares occurred.
       Region 7530 (S10E17) was stable while retaining a moderate
       level of magnetic complexity. It produced isolated subflares
       during the period. Region 7529 (S12W13) produced occasional
       subflares, one of which reached C-class.  New Region 7536
       (S07E07) was numbered.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       moderate. Region 7530 is capable of M-class flaring. It also
       provides a slight chance for a major flare.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels
       for the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled during the first day. An
       increase to active to minor storm levels is expected during
       the final two days due to coronal hole effects.

            Event probabilities 30 jun-02 jul

                             Class M    50/50/50
                             Class X    05/05/05
                             Proton     05/05/05
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 30 jun-02 jul

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                25/40/40
                        Minor Storm           15/20/20
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/15/15

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                25/40/40
                        Minor Storm           15/30/30
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/20/20

            HF propagation conditions continued near-normal to
       above-normal over all regions.  Similar conditions are expected
       on 30 June before deteriorating on 01 July and 02 July when
       effects from the coronal-hole related disturbance noted above
       arrives.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 29/2400Z JUNE
-------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7528  N03W74  123  0050 CAO  06  003 BETA
7529  S12W13  062  0240 CSO  07  010 BETA
7530  S10E17  032  0320 EAI  15  048 BETA-GAMMA
7534  S13E36  013  0010 BXO  03  003 BETA
7535  N03E42  007  0000 AXX  01  002 ALPHA
7536  S07E07  042  0020 BXO  02  005 BETA
7527  N09W81  130                    PLAGE
7531  S00W57  106                    PLAGE
7532  N09W62  111                    PLAGE
7533  N20W28  077                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 30 JUNE TO 02 JULY
NMBR LAT    LO
7522 N21   280


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 29 JUNE, 1993
---------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 1023 1023 1023                          940


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 29 JUNE, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
29/A0124             B1225       S28E23   DSF


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 29/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
15   S53E26 S63W09 S42W27 S20W24  059  EXT   NEG   024 10830A
16   N15E86 S06E66 S03E61 N20E86  332  ISO   POS   003 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


