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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 28 June
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Tue, 29 Jun 93 2:18:56 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  28 JUNE, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 28 JUNE, 1993
--------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 179, 06/28/93
10.7 FLUX=123.7  90-AVG=112        SSN=111      BKI=1112 1112  BAI=004
BGND-XRAY=B3.7     FLU1=1.5E+06  FLU10=3.6E+04  PKI=2112 2232  PAI=006
  BOU-DEV=008,007,008,012,008,008,006,015   DEV-AVG=009 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C6.2   @ 0122UT    XRAY-MIN= B3.0   @ 2349UT   XRAY-AVG= B9.4
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 1350UT   NEUTN-MIN= -001%  @ 1855UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.3%
  PCA-MAX= +0.2DB @ 2110UT     PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 0005UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55375NT @ 1407UT   BOUTF-MIN=55333NT @ 1935UT  BOUTF-AVG=55356NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+083,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+124NT@ 1747UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-063NT@ 2143UT  G6-AVG=+107,-017,-044
 FLUXFCST=STD:128,130,130;SESC:128,130,130 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,015,025/010,015,030
    KFCST=2224 3222 2334 3333  27DAY-AP=004,006   27DAY-KP=2111 2211 1123 2222
 WARNINGS=*SWF;*MAJFLR;*PROTON;*PCA
   ALERTS=**SWEEP:II=1@2208-2211UTC
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 27 JUN 93 was  73.7.
      The Full Kp Indices for 27 JUN 93 are: 2+ 1+ 2o 2+   2+ 2o 2o 1o 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Region 7530 (S13E32) produced
       several low-level flares, one a C5/SF at 1259Z that caused a
       large surge and an erupting filament from the inversion line.
       The region continues to grow and remains magnetically complex.
       Region 7528 (N01W60) became active again and produced several
       SF flares. Two new regions were numbered. Region 7535 (N02E56)
       produced the largest flare of the period, a C6/SF at 0109Z with
       an associated bright surge on the limb out to .16 solar radii.
       New Region 7534 (S15E50) produced a C1/SF at 0550Z.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       moderate to high, with the best chance of a major flare from
       Region 7530.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past
       24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled for the first part of the
       period. Active to minor storm levels should begin on the
       third day due to coronal hole effects.

            Event probabilities 29 jun-01 jul

                             Class M    75/75/75
                             Class X    15/15/15
                             Proton     05/05/05
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 29 jun-01 jul

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                20/50/40
                        Minor Storm           10/15/20
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/15

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                15/50/30
                        Minor Storm           10/15/30
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/05/20

            HF propagation conditions were normal to above normal over
       all regions.  Similar conditions are expected over the next 24
       to 48 hours.  On 30 June or 01 July, activity is expected to
       become less stable due to effects from a well-placed solar
       coronal hole.  Poor propagation will be possible over the high
       and polar latitudes, with fair to good propagation dominant
       over the middle latitude paths.  Low latitudes can expect good
       to very good propagation throughout the next three days.  A
       high risk for SWF activity still exists with a moderate threat
       for possible proton-related PCA enhancements should a major
       proton flare erupt.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 28/2400Z JUNE
-------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7528  N02W60  122  0070 CAO  07  006 BETA
7529  S13E02  060  0210 CHO  06  009 BETA
7530  S12E32  030  0320 EAI  12  041 BETA-GAMMA
7534  S15E49  013  0020 BXO  03  003 BETA
7535  N02E55  007  0010 AXX  01  002 ALPHA
7527  N09W68  130                    PLAGE
7531  S00W44  106                    PLAGE
7532  N09W49  111                    PLAGE
7533  N20W15  077                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 29 JUNE TO 01 JULY
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 28 JUNE, 1993
---------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 0546 0550 0552 7534  S14E60 C2.1  SF   1300
 0705 0705 0706                          270
 1101 1102 1102                          130
 1402 1405 1408 7530  S11E30       SF    180
 2208      2211                                     II


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 28 JUNE, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
28/ 0102     0109     0153       N03E69   LDE    C6.5   51
28/ 0011     0019     0054       S07E49   LDE    C2.4   43
28/A0408             B0855       S03E33   DSF
28/ 2208              2211                RSP               1


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 28/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
15   S48E26 S50E07 S19W10 S19W10  060  EXT   NEG   018 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


