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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 27 June
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Mon, 28 Jun 93 11:16:34 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  27 JUNE, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 27 JUNE, 1993
--------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 178, 06/27/93
10.7 FLUX=127.5  90-AVG=112        SSN=100      BKI=2122 2221  BAI=006
BGND-XRAY=B4.8     FLU1=1.6E+06  FLU10=6.3E+04  PKI=2122 2221  PAI=007
  BOU-DEV=017,007,012,019,010,018,013,008   DEV-AVG=013 NT     SWF=01:027
 XRAY-MAX= M3.6   @ 1126UT    XRAY-MIN= B3.8   @ 0509UT   XRAY-AVG= C1.5
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 0915UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 0030UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.5%
  PCA-MAX= +0.2DB @ 1810UT     PCA-MIN= -0.6DB @ 2310UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55370NT @ 1436UT   BOUTF-MIN=55322NT @ 1839UT  BOUTF-AVG=55353NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+077,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+121NT@ 1429UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-065NT@ 0110UT  G6-AVG=+101,-018,-048
 FLUXFCST=STD:135,140,145;SESC:135,140,145 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,015/010,010,015
    KFCST=2224 3221 2224 3221  27DAY-AP=006,004   27DAY-KP=2212 2222 2111 2211
 WARNINGS=*SWF;*MAJFLR;*PROTON;*PCA
   ALERTS=**MINFLR:M3.6/2N@1126,S09E58(7530)
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 26 JUN 93 was  72.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 26 JUN 93 are: 3- 3+ 1+ 1+   2o 2+ 2o 3- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was moderate. Region 7530 (S11E44)
       produced an M3.6/2N at 27/1126Z. This region continues to grow
       in size and complexity. It nearly doubled in size and 11 more
       spots became visible. Region 7529 (S13E15) has also shown
       steady growth and produced a few small flares. GOES sensors
       observed a weak proton enhancement of two pfu at the greater
       than 10 MeV level which began at 26/2100Z. One new region was
       assigned, Region 7533 (N20W02).

       STD: Region 7530 is a magnetically complex region with several
       notable centers of shear and fairly strong gradients.  It is
       presently a beta-gamma magnetic group.  Subflare activity has
       increased in frequency over the last 24 hours from this region.
       Most of the flares observed in this region (including most of
       the M-class events) have been of average duration and fairly
       radio-quiet.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       moderate to high. Region 7530 continues to show the greatest
       flare potential on the disk.

            The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet levels
       for the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled. A coronal hole may begin to
       disturb the field late on 30 June.

            Event probabilities 28 jun-30 jun

                             Class M    75/75/75
                             Class X    15/15/15
                             Proton     05/05/05
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 28 jun-30 jun

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                25/25/50
                        Minor Storm           15/15/20
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/10

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                25/25/50
                        Minor Storm           15/15/20
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/10

            HF propagation conditions have been normal to slightly
       above normal over all regions.  Similar good propagation should
       persist for the next 48 to 72 hours.  Another coronal hole may
       begin influencing propagation on 30 June.  SWF activity over
       daylit paths remains a strong possibility.  The threat for
       possible proton-related PCA activity also exists, but with a
       smaller probability dependent on whether any other major
       energetic solar flares erupt over the next week.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 27/2400Z JUNE
-------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7528  N01W48  123  0090 DAO  07  005 BETA
7529  S14E15  060  0220 CHI  05  010 BETA
7530  S12E44  031  0270 EAI  12  032 BETA-GAMMA
7531  S00W31  106  0000 AXX  02  002 ALPHA
7533  N20W02  077  0010 AXX  01  001 ALPHA
7527  N09W55  130                    PLAGE
7532  N09W36  111                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 28 JUNE TO 30 JUNE
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 27 JUNE, 1993
---------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 0034 0037 0040              C3.2        300
 0044 0047 0050              C3.6        230
 0233 0237 0243              C2.6        390
 0428 0433 0436 7530  S10E53 C9.8  SF    120 77
 1106 1126 1137 7530  S09E58 M3.6  2N     76 74
 1852 1856 1902 7530  S11E43 C1.3  SF    560
 2130 2140 2154 7530  S11E43       SF    170


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 27 JUNE, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
27/1106      1126     1137                LDE    M3.6   31
27/ 2116              2120       S14E18   DSF


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 27/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
15   S50E46 S50E46 S20E06 S20E06  054  EXT   NEG   016 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


