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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 26 June
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Sun, 27 Jun 93 0:11:43 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  26 JUNE, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 26 JUNE, 1993
--------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 177, 06/26/93
10.7 FLUX=122    90-AVG=112        SSN=088      BKI=2411 2323  BAI=010
BGND-XRAY=B4.3     FLU1=1.1E+06  FLU10=4.9E+04  PKI=3311 2223  PAI=009
  BOU-DEV=017,058,008,006,010,021,017,027   DEV-AVG=020 NT     SWF=02:007
 XRAY-MAX= M1.1   @ 0145UT    XRAY-MIN= B3.8   @ 0803UT   XRAY-AVG= B9.6
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 1850UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 0050UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.3DB @ 1600UT     PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 2240UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55369NT @ 0054UT   BOUTF-MIN=55328NT @ 1740UT  BOUTF-AVG=55353NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+073,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+120NT@ 1653UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-080NT@ 0123UT  G6-AVG=+098,-018,-048
 FLUXFCST=STD:125,127,130;SESC:125,127,130 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,010/010,010,010
    KFCST=2234 3222 2234 3222  27DAY-AP=006,006   27DAY-KP=2212 2222 2212 2222
 WARNINGS=*SWF;*MAJFLR;*PROTON;*PCA
   ALERTS=**MINFLR:M1.1/1N@0145,S10E77(7530);**MINFLR:M1.1/SN@1507,S11E62;
          **PROTNENH
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 25 JUN 93 was  65.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 25 JUN 93 are: 3- 3+ 4o 4o   3o 3- 2o 3- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was moderate. Region 7530 (S11E56)
       produced two M flares, an M1.1/1N at 0145Z and an M1.1/SN at
       1507Z, as well as several C-class flares. This region showed
       frequent plage fluctuations most of the day and several of the
       flares had multiple centers. Region 7529 (S12E27) has been
       relatively stable but retains a strong magnetic gradient. If it
       has reached its maximum size, we should see more flares from it
       during its decay phase. It produced one C2/SF flare this
       period. Two new Regions were numbered: Region 7531 at N01W17
       and Region 7532 at N09W23.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       moderate to high.  Region 7530 has the best chance of producing
       a major flare.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled
       levels for the past 24 hours. The coronal hole activity
       abated around 0600Z.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled for the period, unless
       a significant solar flare occurs.

            Event probabilities 27 jun-29 jun

                             Class M    80/80/80
                             Class X    15/15/15
                             Proton     02/02/05
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 27 jun-29 jun

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                25/25/25
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                30/30/30
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

            HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.
       Similar good propagation is expected to persist for the next
       three days, through 29 June inclusive, barring major solar
       outbursts.  There is a high-probability for SWF activity over
       daylit paths.  Polar path communicators and navigators should
       remain aware of the increased threat for possible PCA activity
       should a major proton flare develop.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 26/2400Z JUNE
-------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7528  N02W34  123  0090 DAO  08  007 BETA
7529  S12E27  062  0190 CAO  05  006 BETA
7530  S11E56  033  0150 DAI  10  020 BETA-GAMMA
7531  N01W17  106  0010 BXO  02  004 BETA
7532  N09W23  112  0000 AXX  01  001 ALPHA
7527  N09W42  131                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 27 JUNE TO 29 JUNE
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 26 JUNE, 1993
---------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 0106 0106 0107                          100
 0138 0145 0148 7530  S10E77 M1.1  1N        28
 1453 1507 1515 7530  S11E62 M1.1  SN
 1637 1637 1637                          100
 1830 1836 1841 7530  S11E59 C1.7  SF    220


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 26 JUNE, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 26/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
15   S54E86 S60E86 S25E18 S25E18  048  EXT   NEG   012 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


