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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 25 June
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Sat, 26 Jun 93 10:38:27 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  25 JUNE, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 25 JUNE, 1993
--------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 176, 06/25/93
10.7 FLUX=118.7  90-AVG=113        SSN=076      BKI=3434 3323  BAI=017
BGND-XRAY=B5.5     FLU1=2.1E+06  FLU10=3.6E+04  PKI=3344 3323  PAI=016
  BOU-DEV=033,056,038,041,035,027,015,022   DEV-AVG=033 NT     SWF=01:032
 XRAY-MAX= M5.1   @ 0322UT    XRAY-MIN= B4.9   @ 1508UT   XRAY-AVG= C1.6
NEUTN-MAX= +001%  @ 1710UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 1510UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.7%
  PCA-MAX= +0.3DB @ 2315UT     PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 0315UT    PCA-AVG= +0.1DB
BOUTF-MAX=55374NT @ 0047UT   BOUTF-MIN=55327NT @ 1728UT  BOUTF-AVG=55350NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+070,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+124NT@ 1723UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-079NT@ 2310UT  G6-AVG=+095,-021,-049
 FLUXFCST=STD:130,135,140;SESC:130,135,140 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,015,010/018,012,010
    KFCST=2334 3322 2334 3322  27DAY-AP=012,006   27DAY-KP=4324 1223 2212 2222
 WARNINGS=*SWF;*MAJFLR;*PROTON;*PCA
   ALERTS=**MAJFLR:M5.1@0322;**PROTNENH
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 24 JUN 93 was  71.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 24 JUN 93 are: 3o 4o 5o 4-   4o 4o 3+ 3+ 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was high. Region 7530 (S10E70) produced
       an M5.1 limb event at 25/0302Z. This was Region 7518 which
       accounted for over seventy flares last rotation. It is the
       cause of the uncorrelated limb events of the last forty-eight
       hours. Many loops and surges have accompanied its limb passage.
       Region 7529 (S43E37) shows strong magnetic gradients but it has
       not flared.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       moderate to high. Regions 7530 and 7529 both have a high prob-
       ability of producing a major flare.

       STD: The National Solar Observatory did not observed enhanced
       Ca XV emissions as these two regions rotated into view.
       Protons at greater than 10 MeV are fairly stable and have shown
       only a very slight upward climb to the present level near 0.7
       pfu over the last 24 hours.  The probability for additional
       proton activity as these two regions traverse the disk is
       moderate.

            The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active
       levels for the past 24 hours due to coronal hole effects.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be mostly unsettled. The coronal hole will soon
       lose its effectiveness but increased flare activity should
       keep the field mildly disturbed.

            Event probabilities 26 jun-28 jun

                             Class M    75/75/75
                             Class X    20/20/20
                             Proton     05/10/10
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 26 jun-28 jun

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                35/35/25
                        Minor Storm           20/20/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                35/35/25
                        Minor Storm           20/20/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all
       regions.  Night-sector signal paths over the higher latitudes
       were affected by minor fading, absorption and multipath
       activity, but were otherwise near-normal.  Conditions are
       expected to remain near-normal to slightly below-normal over
       the next 24 to 72 hours.  A gradual return to normal
       propagation is expected, barring influential solar activity.
       There is a high risk for low to moderate intensity SWFs over
       daylit paths throughout the next three days at least.  Polar
       path communicators are also warned of the increased risk for
       possible PCA activity from possible major proton flares.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 25/2400Z JUNE
-------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7525  S17W87  189  0000 AXX  01  001 ALPHA
7527  N09W28  130  0000 AXX  01  001 ALPHA
7528  N02W20  122  0120 DAO  08  015 BETA
7529  S13E40  062  0220 DAO  04  006 BETA
7530  S09E70  032  0070 CAO  04  003 BETA
7524  N10W15  117                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 26 JUNE TO 28 JUNE
NMBR LAT    LO
7519 N06   001


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 25 JUNE, 1993
---------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 0302 0322 0332              M5.1         31 45
 0331 0333 0350 7530  S06E90       SF    110


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 25 JUNE, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 25/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
14   S10W57 S22W64 S06W65 S01W62  165  ISO   POS   003 10830A
15   S52E86 S52E86 S24E31 S22E33  057  ISO   NEG   013 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


