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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 24 June
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Thu, 24 Jun 93 21:45:48 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  24 JUNE, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)

NOTE:  Satellite imagery of auroral activity over the south pole will
       be made available for anonymous FTP at the site: XI.ULETH.CA in
       the directory "pub/solar/Aurora/Images".  We will try to
       provide at least one image per day, when imagery is available.
       Data is from the DMSP F11 satellite.  The imagery may appear to
       be a bit noisy due to the fact that there is no moon, and the
       configuration of the low-light cameras.  Convolution filters do
       help eliminate the noise.  Try inverting the images to improve
       visibility under quiet conditions.  Due to disk space
       limitations, only a limited number of DMSP images will be
       on-line at one time.  Old images will be deleted.


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 24 JUNE, 1993
--------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 175, 06/24/93
10.7 FLUX=121.4  90-AVG=113        SSN=066      BKI=3453 4433  BAI=023
BGND-XRAY=B6.5     FLU1=4.3E+06  FLU10=2.0E+04  PKI=3454 4433  PAI=025
  BOU-DEV=021,051,071,032,046,058,031,038   DEV-AVG=044 NT     SWF=03:115
 XRAY-MAX= M9.7   @ 0735UT    XRAY-MIN= B4.3   @ 0534UT   XRAY-AVG= C4.2
NEUTN-MAX= +001%  @ 2055UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 2320UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.8%
  PCA-MAX= +0.9DB @ 1735UT     PCA-MIN= -1.1DB @ 0750UT    PCA-AVG= +0.1DB
BOUTF-MAX=55375NT @ 2333UT   BOUTF-MIN=55328NT @ 1856UT  BOUTF-AVG=55353NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+074,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+129NT@ 1637UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-106NT@ 0636UT  G6-AVG=+096,-025,-059
 FLUXFCST=STD:126,132,137;SESC:126,132,137 BAI/PAI-FCST=020,025,015/020,025,015
    KFCST=3445 4344 4554 4333  27DAY-AP=020,012   27DAY-KP=4433 3434 4324 1223
 WARNINGS=*SWF;*MAJFLR;*PROTON
   ALERTS=**MAJFLR:M9.7/2B@0716-0735-0752,S11E64(7529);
          **TENFLR:390SFU@0722;**SWEEP:II=3@0702-0706;**SWEEP:II=3@0732-0736;
          **SWEEP:IV=3@0659-0900UTC;**TENFLR:@1720,DUR=4MIN;
          **245STRM:0636-0959UTC
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 23 JUN 93 was  80.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 23 JUN 93 are: 3o 2- 1+ 3o   3+ 2+ 4o 3o 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was high.  Region 7529 (S13E53) produced
       an M9.7/2B flare at 0735Z, with associated Type II and IV radio
       sweeps of importance 3, and a 2695 MHz radio burst of 450 flux
       units. Region 7528 (N03W07) has grown rapidly, more than
       doubling its size overnight. Surging at the east limb continued
       at about S08. An M4.2/1F flare occurred at 1727 at S12E90, with
       a 2695 MHz burst of 130 flux units, followed by an M1.3 at 1818Z
       with another 2695 burst of 150 units, probably originating from
       the same area. This region is not yet visible for sunspot
       classification, so a region number has not been assigned.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       moderate to high. Region 7529 has the highest probablility of
       the numbered regions of producing M-flares, with a fair chance
       of producing an X-flare. The as yet unumbered region appears
       to be quite active already, and may be old Region 7518, which
       produced three M-flares on its last passage.

       STD: Protons at greater than 10 MeV are very gradually becoming
       weakly enhanced.  This is most evident in the fluence, which
       has increased from 1.3E+04 to 2.0E+4.  Particles at greater
       than 10 MeV are still well below 1 pfu, presently running at
       about 0.3 pfu.  Nearly continuous bright surging has been
       observed on the southeast limb near S08.  There are reports
       suggesting that this region is less than a day behind the east
       limb.  Nobeyama Radio Observatory issued a special alert
       earlier today warning of a large active region behind the east
       limb.  However, it is interesting to note that the National
       Solar Observatory is not yet seeing any Ca XV emissions from
       this area of the limb.  Region 7529 has an interesting magnetic
       configuration.  It appears to have a narrow band of opposite
       polarity flux immediately to the east of the large leader spot.
       Big Bear Solar Observatory noted that it may also have an
       opposite polarity spot within the main penumbra, although it's
       still too close to the limb to be certain.  We are placing
       greater flare-potential on the region near S10 that is poised
       to rotate into view.  The impressive activity that has been
       observed from this area (both optically and in x-rays) appears
       to be stronger than the dynamics associated with Region 7529.
       However, this remains to be confirmed.

            The geomagnetic field has been at mostly active levels for
       the past 24 hours, with short periods of minor storming
       at mid-latitudes and major storming at high latitudes. This
       activity is most likely due to the coronal hole in the
       western solar hemisphere.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be mostly active until midday tomorrow due to
       coronal hole effects. Enhanced activity due to the M9 flare
       is expected to start by late in the day tomorrow and continue
       through the second day. The third day of the period should be
       back to unsettled levels.

            Event probabilities 25 jun-27 jun

                             Class M    70/70/70
                             Class X    25/25/25
                             Proton     05/05/10
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 25 jun-27 jun

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                60/60/40
                        Minor Storm           20/25/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/10/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                50/50/40
                        Minor Storm           30/35/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/10/05

            HF propagation was near-normal to slightly below-normal
       over most regions.  Significant short wave fadeouts (SWFs) were
       associated with the major M9.7/2B tenflare and M4.2/1F
       tenflare today.  Daylit paths suffered frequent signal
       absorption and instabilities attributed to the significantly
       increased frequency and magnitude of solar flare activity.
       Night-sector paths also experienced enhanced absorption,
       multipathing, and fading attributed to increased geomagnetic
       and auroral activity.  Similar propagation is expected to
       persist over the next 24 to 72 hours.  SWF activity is expected
       to persist over daylit paths.  This may all be accentuated on
       26 June when the flare-shock from the M9.7 flare is due to
       arrive.  Although no significant activity is expected from this
       disturbance, conditions won't show any improvements until 27 or
       28 June, barring additional influential solar events.
       Communicators are warned of the increased threat for
       potentially polar cap absorption (PCA) activity attributed to
       possible proton flares.  This risk will remain with us
       throughout most of the next week or two.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 24/2400Z JUNE
-------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7525  S17W75  190  0050 CAO  04  004 BETA
7527  N10W15  130  0010 HSX  01  002 ALPHA
7528  N03W07  122  0120 DAO  07  013 BETA
7529  S13E53  062  0190 CAO  05  007 BETA
7524  N10W02  117                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 25 JUNE TO 27 JUNE
NMBR LAT    LO
7518 S10   017
7519 N06   001


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 24 JUNE, 1993
---------------------------------------------------

         NO DATA PRESENTLY AVAILABLE


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 24 JUNE, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
24/ 0107     0129     0200                LDE    C4.1   53
24/ 0659          25/ 0000                RSP                  3
24/ 0702              0706                RSP               3
24/ 0732              0736       S11E64   RSP    M9.7   36  3  3


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 24/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
14   S17W40 S23W41 S04W55 N06W51  166  ISO   POS   007 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


