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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 23 June
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Wed, 23 Jun 93 22:20:49 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  23 JUNE, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 23 JUNE, 1993
--------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 174, 06/23/93
10.7 FLUX=109.4  90-AVG=113        SSN=066      BKI=3213 3333  BAI=012
BGND-XRAY=B3.0     FLU1=3.6E+05  FLU10=1.3E+04  PKI=3213 3243  PAI=013
  BOU-DEV=035,015,006,023,031,020,029,025   DEV-AVG=023 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C4.0   @ 2255UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.9   @ 0029UT   XRAY-AVG= B5.7
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 1940UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 2345UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.3%
  PCA-MAX= +0.4DB @ 1735UT     PCA-MIN= -0.6DB @ 1935UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55386NT @ 1420UT   BOUTF-MIN=55336NT @ 1949UT  BOUTF-AVG=55364NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+088,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+166NT@ 1831UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-106NT@ 0110UT  G6-AVG=+111,-017,-053
 FLUXFCST=STD:115,120,125;SESC:115,120,125 BAI/PAI-FCST=020,010,010/020,015,010
    KFCST=3333 3332 1112 2111  27DAY-AP=018,020   27DAY-KP=2453 3233 4433 3434
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 22 JUN 93 was  68.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 22 JUN 93 are: 1+ 0+ 1+ 1o   1- 2o 3- 3o 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Today's only C-class event
       was a C1 long duration event which peaked around 23/2100Z. There
       was no optical signature for this event, suggesting a source be-
       hind the solar limb. Interestingly, the x-ray event was just
       preceded by a bright surge event on the limb (BSL) at S18E90
       showing spikes as high as .18 Solar radii in H-alpha. An EPL was
       reported from coronal observations in good time correspondence
       to the BSL. An additional long duration x-ray event (also lack-
       ing an optical signature) was observed around 0900Z. Region 7525
       (S18W61) underwent considerable decay today. Region 7528
       (N02E07) showed growth and development of mature spots and the
       formation of a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. New Region
       7529 (S12E67) rotated into view.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low. A gradual increase in activity and background levels is
       anticipated on day two with the return of old Region 7518
       (S10, L=017).

            The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled. A
       notable increase in activity from very quiet levels to
       unsettled to slightly active levels occurred just after
       22/2100Z. Conditions diminished a bit from 0600-1800Z
       but appeared to be picking up again to unsettled to
       active levels near the end of the period.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be mostly active for the next 24 hours due to co-
       ronal hole effects. Conditions should diminish to mostly un-
       settled for the remainder of the forecast period.

            Event probabilities 24 jun-26 jun

                             Class M    05/10/10
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 24 jun-26 jun

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                25/10/10
                        Minor Storm           10/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                30/10/10
                        Minor Storm           15/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/01/01

            HF propagation was normal over all regions.  Minor signal
       degradation is expected over the high and polar latitude paths
       over the next 24 to 36 hours (through about 25 June inclusive)
       due to enhanced levels of geomagnetic and auroral activity.
       Conditions should then begin to improve on 26 June.  There is a
       chance for SWF activity over daylit paths.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 23/2400Z JUNE
-------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7525  S18W61  189  0060 CSO  07  006 BETA
7527  N08W00  128  0020 DSO  03  006 BETA
7528  N02E07  121  0040 CAO  05  011 BETA
7529  S12E67  061  0190 CAO  05  003 BETA
7523  N07W80  208                    PLAGE
7524  N10E11  117                    PLAGE
7526  N12W64  192                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 24 JUNE TO 26 JUNE
NMBR LAT    LO
7518 S10   017
7519 N06   001


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 23 JUNE, 1993
---------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 23 JUNE, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
23/ 0824     0930     1040                LDE    B9.2  136
23/B1242             B1424       N14E19   DSF
23/A1311             B1413       N06W43   DSF
23/ 1355     1421     1457       N09W38   LDE    B4.2   62


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 23/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
14   S24W26 S27W31 S05W44 N10W40  166  ISO   POS   010 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


