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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 22 June
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Tue, 22 Jun 93 23:18:48 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  22 JUNE, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 22 JUNE, 1993
--------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 173, 06/22/93
10.7 FLUX=096.6  90-AVG=113        SSN=045      BKI=0011 0003  BAI=002
BGND-XRAY=B1.4     FLU1=4.4E+05  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=1011 1233  PAI=006
  BOU-DEV=004,004,006,009,004,004,004,035   DEV-AVG=008 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C1.5   @ 1329UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.3   @ 1635UT   XRAY-AVG= B1.8
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 2055UT   NEUTN-MIN= -001%  @ 2345UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.7%
  PCA-MAX= +0.2DB @ 2310UT     PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 1620UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55376NT @ 1343UT   BOUTF-MIN=55328NT @ 1914UT  BOUTF-AVG=55359NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+084,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+136NT@ 1632UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-078NT@ 2359UT  G6-AVG=+106,-016,-044
 FLUXFCST=STD:105,110,120;SESC:105,110,120 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,020,010/015,018,010
    KFCST=1111 1111 3333 3333  27DAY-AP=004,018   27DAY-KP=1111 1213 2453 3233
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 21 JUN 93 was  63.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 21 JUN 93 are: 1- 0o 1o 1-   1+ 2o 2o 2o 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Only one C-class flare was
       produced today: a C1.5/SF at 1329Z from Region 7525 (S17W48).
       The group showed modest growth and was the only region on the
       disk producing activity. Nevertheless the region remains small
       (90 millionths) and magnetically simple. Surge activity was
       reported on east limb at about S10.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low. An upward trend in activity and background levels is anti-
       cipated with the return of old Region 7518 (S10, l=017) on 25
       June.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for
       the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next 12-24 hours. An
       increase to mostly active levels is expected to begin sometime
       late on the 23rd due to a favorably positioned coronal hole.
       Active levels are expected to predominate through day two and
       should subside sometime early on day three.

            Event probabilities 23 jun-25 jun

                             Class M    10/10/15
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 23 jun-25 jun

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                30/30/30
                        Minor Storm           20/20/20
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/10/10

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                30/30/30
                        Minor Storm           30/25/25
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/10/10

            HF propagation conditions were normal.  Good to very good
       propagation dominated over the low and middle latitude paths.
       Fair to good propagation was the norm for the high and polar
       latitudes.  Conditions are expected to become mildly degraded
       over the high and polar latitude paths as the coronal-hole
       disturbance noted above begins to affect activity.  Conditions
       should be least stable on 23 June.  Aside from enhanced fading
       and minor auroral absorption, propagation should still remain
       fairly good.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 22/2400Z JUNE
-------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7525  S17W48  189  0090 DAO  07  011 BETA
7527  N09E14  127  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7528  N04E21  120  0000 AXX  01  003 ALPHA
7523  N07W67  208                    PLAGE
7524  N10E24  117                    PLAGE
7526  N12W51  192                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 23 JUNE TO 25 JUNE
NMBR LAT    LO
7517 N10   049
7518 S10   017


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 22 JUNE, 1993
---------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 1855 1855 1855                          140
 2056 2059 2101              B2.8        650


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 22 JUNE, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 22/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
14   S29W10 S33W26 S27W33 N02W26  166  ISO   POS   013 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


