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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 21 June
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Mon, 21 Jun 93 21:49:47 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  21 JUNE, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 21 JUNE, 1993
--------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 172, 06/21/93
10.7 FLUX=091.0  90-AVG=113        SSN=048      BKI=0000 1101  BAI=001
BGND-XRAY=B1.2     FLU1=4.5E+05  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=1011 1222  PAI=004
  BOU-DEV=002,002,002,004,006,006,004,006   DEV-AVG=004 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B3.3   @ 2342UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.1   @ 1310UT   XRAY-AVG= B1.5
NEUTN-MAX= +004%  @ 0055UT   NEUTN-MIN= -001%  @ 1345UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.8%
  PCA-MAX= +0.3DB @ 2150UT     PCA-MIN= -0.8DB @ 2255UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55372NT @ 1350UT   BOUTF-MIN=55324NT @ 1819UT  BOUTF-AVG=55357NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+084,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+129NT@ 1644UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-064NT@ 2358UT  G6-AVG=+108,-016,-040
 FLUXFCST=STD:095,100,110;SESC:095,100,110 BAI/PAI-FCST=008,015,018/010,015,018
    KFCST=2223 3223 2223 3344  27DAY-AP=003,004   27DAY-KP=1000 1121 1111 1213
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=**245STRM:2329-2359UTC
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 20 JUN 93 was  61.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 20 JUN 93 are: 0+ 0+ 3+ 1o   2- 2- 2o 1o 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. Yohkoh images from 20-21 Jun
       indicate the very long duration B9 event mentioned on 20 Jun
       was indeed from the east limb. Broad enhancements were visible
       near NE16 and SE10 with extensive loop systems. The southern
       area was the most intense.  Current disk regions were
       predominantly quiet. Region 7525 (S22W33) grew to a small class
       D group but the rate of emergence slowed.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity should become
       low. Old Region 7518 is due back at the southeast limb on
       24-25 Jun. If in fact the long duration B9 flare was from
       that region, the flare could well have been quite high in
       peak flux. It is reasonable that an X-flare 4 days behind
       the limb could result in the signature seen on 20 Jun.
       An M-class flare remains a possibility until the region
       comes into full view allowing an accurate assessment.

       STD: In addition to the above, if the source flare which
       produced the long-duration x-ray enhancement on 20 June was
       from a region 4-days behind the limb, there is a strong
       probability that the event accelerated protons.  For this
       reason, there is a chance that the region which spawned this
       flare could still be capable of producing proton enhancements
       during its transit of the visible disk - provided it remains
       structurally intact.  Although it is still far too early to be
       certain of anything, many regions which produce strong flares
       typically require several days before they are capable of
       repeating events.  For this reason, there is a slight chance we
       could see a stronger (possibly major) event over the next
       several days, until the region comes into view for closer
       scrutiny. At the present time, there are no unusual Ca XV,
       Fe XIV, or Fe X emissions present on the east limb.  If
       anything, emissions over the last 24 hours have decreased in
       intensity over the northeast limb.

            The geomagnetic field was quiet.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field
       should be quiet to unsettled for 22 Jun. A coronal hole
       related disturbance is expected to begin in the latter half
       of 23 Jun and continue through 24 Jun.

            Event probabilities 22 jun-24 jun

                             Class M    10/10/15
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 22 jun-24 jun

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                05/30/30
                        Minor Storm           05/10/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/05/10

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                15/30/30
                        Minor Storm           05/30/30
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/10

            HF propagation conditions have been near-normal over all
       regions.  Similar propagation is expected over the next 24 to
       48 hours.  High latitudes are expected to see minor signal
       instabilities increase on 23 and 24 June in response to the
       coronal-hole disturbanced noted above.  There is an increasing
       risk for SWF activity over daylit paths.  The unseen region
       responsible for the long-duration x-ray enhancement observed on
       20 June should be rotating into view shortly.  It may be
       capable of producing minor to possibly major SWF's.  More will
       be known when it comes into view around the east solar limb.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 21/2400Z JUNE
-------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7525  S17W37  192  0080 DAO  09  011 BETA
7526  N12W38  193  0010 BXO  03  004 BETA
7527  N10E25  130  0010 BXO  03  003 BETA
7523  N07W54  209                    PLAGE
7524  N10E37  118                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 22 JUNE TO 24 JUNE
NMBR LAT    LO
7517 N10   049


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 21 JUNE, 1993
---------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 2355 2355 2355                          520


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 21 JUNE, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 21/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
14   S24E03 S28W09 S24W17 N08W10  164  ISO   POS   009 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


