From solar-daily-request@lut.fi Tue Jun 22 04:10:37 1993
Received: from lut.fi by cs.tut.fi with SMTP id AA09492
  (5.65c/IDA-1.4.4 for <rko@cs.tut.fi>); Tue, 22 Jun 1993 04:10:33 +0300
Received: by lut.fi with TULP
	(5.65c/IDA-1.4.4/Kim-2.2) id AA10805; Tue, 22 Jun 1993 04:08:32 +0300
Received: from rho.uleth.ca by lut.fi with SMTP
 (5.65c/IDA-1.4.4/Kim-2.2) id AA10765; Tue, 22 Jun 1993 04:06:47 +0300
Return-Path: <oler@rho.uleth.ca>
Received: by rho.uleth.ca (5.57/Ultrix3.0-C)
 id AA10752; Mon, 21 Jun 93 19:06:23 -0600
From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Message-Id: <9306220106.AA10752@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 20 June
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Mon, 21 Jun 93 19:06:20 MDT
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.3 PL11]
Reply-To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
X-Sequence: 841
Status: OR

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  20 JUNE, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 20 JUNE, 1993
--------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 171, 06/20/93
10.7 FLUX=091.2  90-AVG=113        SSN=032      BKI=1130 1000  BAI=003
BGND-XRAY=A9.5     FLU1=3.2E+05  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=0031 2221  PAI=006
  BOU-DEV=006,006,039,004,006,002,002,004   DEV-AVG=008 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C1.3   @ 0001UT    XRAY-MIN= A7.9   @ 0105UT   XRAY-AVG= B2.8
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 2205UT   NEUTN-MIN= -001%  @ 1650UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.9%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2120UT     PCA-MIN= -1.1DB @ 1520UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55373NT @ 1409UT   BOUTF-MIN=55345NT @ 2034UT  BOUTF-AVG=55359NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+074,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+119NT@ 1711UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-062NT@ 2310UT  G6-AVG=+097,-018,-044
 FLUXFCST=STD:095,100,105;SESC:095,100,105 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,008,015/010,015,015
    KFCST=2223 3223 2233 3343  27DAY-AP=003,003   27DAY-KP=0021 1111 1000 1121
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=**SWEEP:II=2@0000-0020UTC;**SWEEP:IV=2@~1657UTC
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 19 JUN 93 is not available.
      The Full Kp Indices for 19 JUN 93 are: 1- 2o 2o 1o   2- 2+ 2o 1o 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Region 7524 (N10E51) produced a
       C5/1N at 19/2348Z with a moderate intensity Type II. This
       region is now without visible spots. A very long duration B9.8
       x-ray enhancement occurred between 20/1455-1941Z. A long lived
       Type IV accompanied this event.  No disk regions were
       responsible for this enhancement. However, surging was visible
       at NE14 coincident in time. No x-ray imagery was available to
       verify the correlation. Region 7525 (S17W22) emerged rapidly
       and produced several subflares. Region 7526 (N13W24) emerged at
       a lesser rate and was void of burst activity.

       STD: The x-rays associated with the long-duration B9.8 x-ray
       enhancement never decayed to near-background levels until near
       the end of the UTC day.  There have been no obvious
       enhancements in coronal limb emissions.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity should continue
       at a low level with C-class flares becoming more frequent. New
       Region 7525 should produce most of these events should growth
       continue. The long duration B9 enhancement with Type IV was
       possibly from a larger flare beyond the limb. It remains
       possible that an M-class flare could originate from a region
       just beyond the east limb.

            The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet. A brief
       period of unsettled conditions was experienced between 20/0600-
       0900Z.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field
       should be quiet to unsettled for 21-22 jun. Unsettled to
       slightly active conditions should be experienced on 23 jun
       as a coronal hole related disturbance begins.

            Event probabilities 21 jun-23 jun

                             Class M    15/15/15
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 21 jun-23 jun

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                10/10/30
                        Minor Storm           05/05/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                15/20/35
                        Minor Storm           05/10/25
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/10

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all
       regions.  Similar conditions are expected over most regions
       during the next three days.  High latitude paths may begin to
       see minor signal instabilities on 22 or 23 June in response to
       the well placed coronal hole mentioned above.  Otherwise, good
       propagation should persist.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 20/2400Z JUNE
-------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7525  S17W23  191  0030 CRO  06  010 BETA
7526  N13W25  193  0010 AXX  01  002 ALPHA
7523  N07W41  209                    PLAGE
7524  N10E50  118                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 21 JUNE TO 23 JUNE
NMBR LAT    LO
7515 N14   078
7517 N10   049


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 20 JUNE, 1993
---------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 0000      0020 7524                                II
 1440 1445 1452              B2.9        490 56
 1455 1657 1941              B9.8                      IV


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 20 JUNE, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
20/ 0000              0020       N08E62   RSP    C5.1   12  2
20/A0108             B1335       N33E36   DSF
20/ 1455     1657     1941                LDE    B9.8  286     2


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 20/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
14   S28E14 S28E14 S12W08 N08E02  167  ISO   POS   014 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


