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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 19 June
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: 	Sun, 20 Jun 1993 05:28:58 +0300
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  19 JUNE, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 19 JUNE, 1993
--------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 170, 06/19/93
10.7 FLUX=086.0  90-AVG=114        SSN=025      BKI=0221 0202  BAI=003
BGND-XRAY=A6.5     FLU1=3.2E+05  FLU10=1.3E+04  PKI=1221 2221  PAI=005
  BOU-DEV=003,013,018,007,002,017,002,010   DEV-AVG=009 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C5.1   @ 2349UT    XRAY-MIN= A5.7   @ 1434UT   XRAY-AVG= B1.5
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 0930UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 1450UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.1%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1800UT     PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 0300UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55375NT @ 2341UT   BOUTF-MIN=55329NT @ 1721UT  BOUTF-AVG=55356NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+075,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+126NT@ 1615UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-064NT@ 2351UT  G6-AVG=+100,-016,-044
 FLUXFCST=STD:090,095,100;SESC:090,095,100 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,005,005/010,010,010
    KFCST=2223 3223 2223 3223  27DAY-AP=004,003   27DAY-KP=1111 1121 0021 1111
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=**SWEEP:II=1@0024-0041UTC;**SWEEP:II=2@1903-1927UTC
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 18 JUN 93 was  58.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 18 JUN 93 are not available.


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. New Region 7524 (N10E64) produced
       C1/SF flares at 19/0015Z and 19/11332Z. The earlier event was
       accompanied by a weak Type II burst. Region 7524 is a small
       spot group with weak to moderate peak x-ray emission (as
       visible in Yohkoh imagery). Another Type II with a very weak
       long duration GOES x-ray enhancement occurred at 19/1903Z. No
       significant disk enhancement was observed with this radio
       event.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity should continue
       at a low level. Intermittent low level class C flares are
       expected from new Region 7524. There are faint indications on
       the Yohkoh data of new regions beyond the northeast limb and
       the Type II at 1903Z may have been from a flare beyond the
       limb. Due to this uncertainty, a moderate (M-class category)
       level flare must be considered a possibility from this as yet
       unseen area.

            The geomagnetic field was quiet.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field
       should be quiet at mid latitudes and quiet to slightly
       unsettled at high latitudes for the next three days.

            Event probabilities 20 jun-22 jun

                             Class M    05/05/05
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 20 jun-22 jun

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                10/10/10
                        Minor Storm           05/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                15/15/15
                        Minor Storm           05/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

            HF propagation conditions were normal.  No changes are
       expected over the next 72 hours.  Similar conditions should
       persist.  However, there is a slightly increased chance for SWF
       activity over daylit paths.  Recent evidence suggests a region
       slightly beyond the northeast solar limb may be M-class
       capable.  If true, it could produce M-class x-ray bursts
       capable of producing short wave fadeouts over sunlit paths.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 19/2400Z JUNE
-------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7523  N07W28  209  0010 BXO  03  004 BETA
7524  N10E63  118  0010 AXX  01  001 ALPHA
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 20 JUNE TO 22 JUNE
NMBR LAT    LO
7514 N16   082
7515 N14   078


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 19 JUNE, 1993
---------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 0001 0015 0027 7524  N09E79 C1.4  SF     51        II
 1903      1927                                     II


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 19 JUNE, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
19/ 0024              0041       N09E79   RSP    C1.4   26  1
19/ 1903              1927                RSP               2


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 19/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
14   S14E29 S28E25 S12E07 N05E17  166  ISO   POS   007 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


