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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 18 June
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: 	Sun, 20 Jun 1993 04:11:13 +0300
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  18 JUNE, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 18 JUNE, 1993
--------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 169, 06/18/93
10.7 FLUX=084.7  90-AVG=114        SSN=011      BKI=1000 1212  BAI=002
BGND-XRAY=A6.3     FLU1=4.6E+05  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=1010 1112  PAI=002
  BOU-DEV=006,003,002,002,***,***,***,010   DEV-AVG=005 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B3.8   @ 1508UT    XRAY-MIN= A5.7   @ 1935UT   XRAY-AVG= A9.0
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 1210UT   NEUTN-MIN= -001%  @ 2330UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.6%
  PCA-MAX= +0.2DB @ 2145UT     PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 1220UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55370NT @ 1347UT   BOUTF-MIN=55338NT @ 1938UT  BOUTF-AVG=55357NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+083,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+128NT@ 1656UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-066NT@ 0002UT  G6-AVG=+108,-015,-042
 FLUXFCST=STD:090,090,095;SESC:090,090,095 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,005,005/010,010,010
    KFCST=1123 2111 1123 2111  27DAY-AP=005,004   27DAY-KP=1111 1222 1111 1121
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 17 JUN 93 was  57.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 17 JUN 93 are: 1- 1- 1+ 2-   1+ 2- 2o 2- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. Region 7522 (N22W86)
       is the sole spot group on the disk. B-class subflares were
       more frequent, perhaps due to as yet unnumbered active regions
       near east limb.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low.

       STD: Solar activity will be low.  A weak and presently
       uncorrelated C-class flare was observed early in the UT day on
       19 June.  Old Region 7515 is due to return on 20 or 21 June.
       This group was responsible for two M-class flares on the last
       solar rotation, but was in a state of decay as it left the west
       limb on 07 June.  It was also associated with some minor Ca XV
       emissions as it departed the west limb.

            The geomagnetic field was quiet.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled.

            Event probabilities 19 jun-21 jun

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 19 jun-21 jun

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                10/10/10
                        Minor Storm           05/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                20/20/20
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

            HF propagation was normal over all regions.  Quiet
       geomagnetic and auroral conditions are permitting stable
       propagation over many polar and transauroral circuits.  MUFs
       have been near normal values over the last several days.
       Similar good propagation is expected to persist for at least
       the next three days, through 21 June inclusive.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 18/2400Z JUNE
-------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7522  N22W86  280  0050 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7523  N10W16  210                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 19 JUNE TO 21 JUNE
NMBR LAT    LO
7514 N16   082
7515 N14   078


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 18 JUNE, 1993
---------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
NONE


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 18 JUNE, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 18/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
14   S19E45 S19E45 S09E24 N15E36  163  ISO   POS   010 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


