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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 17 June
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: 	Sun, 20 Jun 1993 01:55:26 +0300
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  17 JUNE, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 17 JUNE, 1993
--------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 168, 06/17/93
10.7 FLUX=083.4  90-AVG=115        SSN=024      BKI=0112 1021  BAI=003
BGND-XRAY=A6.3     FLU1=4.0E+05  FLU10=1.3E+04  PKI=1112 1222  PAI=005
  BOU-DEV=002,008,009,010,007,004,013,007   DEV-AVG=007 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B2.7   @ 1958UT    XRAY-MIN= A6.0   @ 2319UT   XRAY-AVG= A7.8
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 2255UT   NEUTN-MIN= -001%  @ 2210UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.3%
  PCA-MAX= +1.2DB @ 1345UT     PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 1050UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55367NT @ 1315UT   BOUTF-MIN=55330NT @ 1743UT  BOUTF-AVG=55354NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+080,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+130NT@ 1437UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-068NT@ 2311UT  G6-AVG=+104,-017,-043
 FLUXFCST=STD:085,090,090;SESC:085,090,090 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,005,005/010,010,010
    KFCST=1123 2111 1123 2111  27DAY-AP=004,005   27DAY-KP=1011 1211 1111 1222
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 16 JUN 93 was  57.3.
      The Full Kp Indices for 16 JUN 93 are: 1+ 1o 2+ 2-   1+ 2- 1o 1- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. Region 7523 (N10W03)
       re-emerged as a simple spot group, making a total of two
       spotted regions visible. Region 7522 (N21W72) has been quiet
       and stable.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low.

            The geomagnetic field was quiet.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled the next three days.

            Event probabilities 18 jun-20 jun

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 18 jun-20 jun

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                10/10/10
                        Minor Storm           05/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                20/20/20
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

            HF propagation conditions continued normal over all
       regions.  Similar conditions are anticipated over the next
       three days, at least.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 17/2400Z JUNE
-------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7522  N21W72  280  0100 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7523  N10W03  211  0000 AXX  02  003 ALPHA
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 18 JUNE TO 20 JUNE
NMBR LAT    LO
7514 N16   082
7515 N14   078


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 17 JUNE, 1993
---------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
NONE


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 17 JUNE, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 17/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
14   S21E50 S22E45 S14E35 N04E43  168  ISO   POS   007 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


