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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 16 June
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Thu, 17 Jun 93 0:06:41 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  16 JUNE, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 16 JUNE, 1993
--------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 167, 06/16/93
10.7 FLUX=082.3  90-AVG=115        SSN=011      BKI=0022 1000  BAI=002
BGND-XRAY=A5.4     FLU1=3.6E+05  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=1122 1211  PAI=005
  BOU-DEV=003,004,019,015,006,004,004,003   DEV-AVG=007 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B2.0   @ 1751UT    XRAY-MIN= A5.0   @ 1114UT   XRAY-AVG= A6.6
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 0045UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 1830UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.2%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1655UT     PCA-MIN= -1.0DB @ 1910UT    PCA-AVG= -0.1DB
BOUTF-MAX=55371NT @ 1331UT   BOUTF-MIN=55347NT @ 1824UT  BOUTF-AVG=55358NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+079,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+122NT@ 1624UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-066NT@ 0004UT  G6-AVG=+103,-017,-045
 FLUXFCST=STD:085,085,090;SESC:085,085,090 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,005,005/010,010,010
    KFCST=1123 3210 1123 2110  27DAY-AP=010,004   27DAY-KP=2243 2221 1011 1211
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 15 JUN 93 was  46.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 15 JUN 93 are: 3- 3o 3o 2-   1+ 2- 2- 2o 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity continued at very low levels. Region
       7522 (N21W59) is still the sole spotted region visible,
       although plage Region 7523 (N11E11) may be evolving into a
       small spot group. Little else of any significance was reported.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to
       persist at very low levels.

            The geomagnetic field was quiet the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled throughout the period.

            Event probabilities 17 jun-19 jun

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 17 jun-19 jun

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                10/10/10
                        Minor Storm           05/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                20/20/20
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all
       regions.  No changes are expected over the next 3 days at
       least, through 19 June inclusive.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 16/2400Z JUNE
-------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7522  N21W59  280  0100 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7523  N11E11  210                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 17 JUNE TO 19 JUNE
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 16 JUNE, 1993
---------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
NONE



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 16 JUNE, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 16/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
14   N20E69 S22E57 S21E52 N20E69  166  ISO   POS   008 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


