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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 15 June
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Wed, 16 Jun 93 7:44:20 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  15 JUNE, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 15 JUNE, 1993
--------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 166, 06/15/93
10.7 FLUX=082.0  90-AVG=116        SSN=011      BKI=2332 1111  BAI=007
BGND-XRAY=A5.1     FLU1=2.8E+05  FLU10=1.3E+04  PKI=3332 1222  PAI=009
  BOU-DEV=015,038,022,011,006,006,006,006   DEV-AVG=013 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= A8.1   @ 1255UT    XRAY-MIN= A4.4   @ 1926UT   XRAY-AVG= A5.9
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 1400UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 1525UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +4.3DB @ 1525UT     PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 1750UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55372NT @ 1317UT   BOUTF-MIN=55337NT @ 1929UT  BOUTF-AVG=55357NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+074,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+125NT@ 1532UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-093NT@ 0229UT  G6-AVG=+101,-018,-050
 FLUXFCST=STD:080,085,085;SESC:080,085,085 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,005/010,010,010
    KFCST=1234 3221 1234 3221  27DAY-AP=010,010   27DAY-KP=2233 2232 2243 2221
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 14 JUN 93 was  55.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 14 JUN 93 are: 1o 3- 2o 5-   2o 2+ 2o 2o 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. Region 7522 (N21W47),
       the sole spot group on the disk, has been quiet and stable.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to
       remain at very low levels.

            The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to persist at quiet to unsettled levels.

            Event probabilities 16 jun-18 jun

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 16 jun-18 jun

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                30/30/15
                        Minor Storm           05/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/01/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                30/25/20
                        Minor Storm           05/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/05/05

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all
       regions.  A downward trend in the MUF is being observed due to
       the weakened state of the ionosphere from low levels of solar
       activity.  Similar conditions are expected over the next three
       days, through at least 18 June inclusive.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 15/2400Z JUNE
-------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7522  N21W47  281  0090 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7523  N11E24  210                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 16 JUNE TO 18 JUNE
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 15 JUNE, 1993
---------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
NONE



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 15 JUNE, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 15/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **


