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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 14 June
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Mon, 14 Jun 93 22:44:52 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  14 JUNE, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 14 JUNE, 1993
--------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 165, 06/14/93
10.7 FLUX=083.7  90-AVG=116        SSN=011      BKI=0225 2222  BAI=011
BGND-XRAY=A7.2     FLU1=2.5E+05  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=1325 2222  PAI=011
  BOU-DEV=004,019,016,080,013,019,010,015   DEV-AVG=022 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B2.9   @ 0533UT    XRAY-MIN= A5.9   @ 2110UT   XRAY-AVG= A9.2
NEUTN-MAX= +000%  @ 0000UT   NEUTN-MIN= +000%  @ 0000UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 0000UT     PCA-MIN= +0.0DB @ 0000UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55368NT @ 2358UT   BOUTF-MIN=55317NT @ 1753UT  BOUTF-AVG=55353NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+075,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+127NT@ 1650UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-080NT@ 2329UT  G6-AVG=+099,-020,-050
 FLUXFCST=STD:085,085,090;SESC:085,085,090 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,010/010,010,010
    KFCST=1234 3222 1234 3222  27DAY-AP=008,010   27DAY-KP=2212 2233 2233 2232
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 13 JUN 93 was  68.7.
      The Full Kp Indices for 13 JUN 93 are: 2+ 3+ 5- 3o   2+ 2+ 3- 3- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. Just one simple spot group,
       Region 7522 (N21W34), is visible. There are signs of a possible
       new group coming into view near N06E85.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to
       continue very low.

            The geomagnetic field has been mostly quiet. Isolated
       substorms brought short-lived disturbed conditions to
       nighttime sectors.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated periodic substorms
       may persist through the period.

            Event probabilities 15 jun-17 jun

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 15 jun-17 jun

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                40/40/35
                        Minor Storm           10/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                20/10/10
                        Minor Storm           40/40/40
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/01/01

            HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.
       No changes are forseen over the next three days, through 17
       June inclusive.  Good propagation should persist.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 14/2400Z JUNE
-------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7522  N21W34  281  0100 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7523  N11E37  210                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 15 JUNE TO 17 JUNE
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 14 JUNE, 1993
---------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
NONE



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 14 JUNE, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
14/ 0524     0532     0602       N22W23   LDE    B2.9   38


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 14/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
12   N43W53 N28W90 N28W90 N43W53  335  ISO   POS   006 10830A
13   S18W53 S24W54 S13W70 S13W70  300  ISO   POS   002 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


