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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 13 June
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Sun, 13 Jun 93 23:47:58 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  13 JUNE, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 13 JUNE, 1993
--------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 164, 06/13/93
10.7 FLUX=086.6  90-AVG=117        SSN=024      BKI=2443 2122  BAI=012
BGND-XRAY=B1.3     FLU1=2.1E+05  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=2353 2233  PAI=015
  BOU-DEV=017,046,058,025,012,009,010,017   DEV-AVG=024 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B6.9   @ 0241UT    XRAY-MIN= A7.7   @ 2253UT   XRAY-AVG= B2.1
NEUTN-MAX= +000%  @ 0000UT   NEUTN-MIN= +000%  @ 0000UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 0000UT     PCA-MIN= +0.0DB @ 0000UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55374NT @ 0024UT   BOUTF-MIN=55334NT @ 1717UT  BOUTF-AVG=55357NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+072,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+124NT@ 1442UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-090NT@ 0235UT  G6-AVG=+099,-019,-052
 FLUXFCST=STD:085,085,090;SESC:085,085,090 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,010/010,010,010
    KFCST=2224 3221 2223 2221  27DAY-AP=013,008   27DAY-KP=3322 2234 2212 2233
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 12 JUN 93 was  68.4.
      The Full Kp Indices for 12 JUN 93 are: 2- 2- 4- 4o   2+ 2o 2o 3o 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. Region 7522 (N22W19)
       remains as the only region of consequence on the disk. No
       significant flare activity was noted today.

       STD: There are only two insignificant regions on the disk, the
       largest of which (Region 7522) is a CSO type group of only
       100 millionths with three counted internal bipolar spots.  This
       group is very simple in magnetic aspects and is not expected to
       produce anything more than very small B-class subflares.
       Background x-ray levels and flare activity dropped notably as
       Region 7518 became fully occulted.  X-ray levels are presently
       very stable near a class A8.0 level.  No new regions are
       expected to return over the next three days.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels
       for the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled for the entire forecast
       period.

            Event probabilities 14 jun-16 jun

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 14 jun-16 jun

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                25/20/20
                        Minor Storm           15/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                25/20/20
                        Minor Storm           15/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

            HF propagation conditions continued near-normal over all
       regions.  Estimated average daily global MUF values (MUF3000F2)
       are running around 17 MHz with critical F2 layer frequencies
       averaging near 6 MHz.  Conditions have been fair to good over
       the high and polar latitude paths, and good to very good over
       the middle and low latitude paths.  Similar good propagation is
       expected to persist over the next three days.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 13/2400Z JUNE
-------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7522  N22W19  280  0100 CSO  04  003 BETA
7523  N11E50  211  0000 AXX  01  001 ALPHA
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 14 JUNE TO 16 JUNE
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 13 JUNE, 1993
---------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
NONE



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 13 JUNE, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
13/ 0222     0242     0320                LDE    B6.9   58
13/ 0502     0507     0537                LDE    B4.5   35


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 13/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **


