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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 12 June
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Sat, 12 Jun 93 22:44:29 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  12 JUNE, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 12 JUNE, 1993
--------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 163, 06/12/93
10.7 FLUX=093.3  90-AVG=117        SSN=033      BKI=2244 3223  BAI=014
BGND-XRAY=B4.8     FLU1=1.9E+05  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=2244 2223  PAI=012
  BOU-DEV=011,017,057,052,021,010,011,028   DEV-AVG=025 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C3.5   @ 0906UT    XRAY-MIN= B3.7   @ 1935UT   XRAY-AVG= B7.0
NEUTN-MAX= +000%  @ 0000UT   NEUTN-MIN= +000%  @ 0000UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 0000UT     PCA-MIN= +0.0DB @ 0000UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55375NT @ 0038UT   BOUTF-MIN=55337NT @ 1731UT  BOUTF-AVG=55357NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+077,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+129NT@ 1658UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-095NT@ 2232UT  G6-AVG=+102,-022,-055
 FLUXFCST=STD:090,085,090;SESC:090,085,090 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,010,010/012,010,010
    KFCST=2224 3222 2223 2221  27DAY-AP=012,013   27DAY-KP=3512 3223 3322 2234
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 11 JUN 93 was  75.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 11 JUN 93 are: 3+ 2+ 2- 2-   2o 2+ 3- 2+ 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Region 7518 (S11W98) was
       responsible for two correlated class-C flares before it rotated
       off the west limb and was probably responsible for three other
       uncorrelated class C flares as well. Region 7523 (N13E62) was
       numbered today.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low for the next 24 hours then very low.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels
       for the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled for the entire three day
       forecast period.

            Event probabilities 13 jun-15 jun

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 13 jun-15 jun

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                25/25/25
                        Minor Storm           20/15/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                25/25/25
                        Minor Storm           20/20/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

            HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.
       No significant changes are expected over the next three days
       (through 15 June inclusive).  Normal propagation should
       dominate.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 12/2400Z JUNE
-------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7519  N06W84  358  0000 AXX  01  001 ALPHA
7522  N22W09  283  0100 HAX  02  001 ALPHA
7523  N13E62  212  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 13 JUNE TO 15 JUNE
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 12 JUNE, 1993
---------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
NONE



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 12 JUNE, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 12/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
12   N35W31 S03W74 S03W74 N42W34  339  EXT   POS   012 10830A
13   S21W25 S22W27 S17W42 S10W34  309  ISO   POS   001 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


