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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 11 June
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Fri, 11 Jun 93 21:14:49 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  11 JUNE, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 11 JUNE, 1993
--------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 162, 06/11/93
10.7 FLUX=101.8  90-AVG=117        SSN=044      BKI=4222 2212  BAI=009
BGND-XRAY=B6.0     FLU1=2.9E+05  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=3222 2232  PAI=009
  BOU-DEV=052,014,012,011,010,012,008,010   DEV-AVG=016 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C5.7   @ 1023UT    XRAY-MIN= B5.3   @ 1241UT   XRAY-AVG= C1.2
NEUTN-MAX= +000%  @ 0000UT   NEUTN-MIN= +000%  @ 0000UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 0000UT     PCA-MIN= +0.0DB @ 0000UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55392NT @ 0034UT   BOUTF-MIN=55340NT @ 1729UT  BOUTF-AVG=55363NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+075,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+128NT@ 1503UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-122NT@ 0238UT  G6-AVG=+099,-025,-063
 FLUXFCST=STD:095,090,085;SESC:095,090,085 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,015,010/015,015,010
    KFCST=3334 3332 2224 3222  27DAY-AP=012,012   27DAY-KP=2133 3243 3512 3223
 WARNINGS=*SWF;*PROTON
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 10 JUN 93 is not available.
      The Full Kp Indices for 10 JUN 93 are not available.


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Region 7518 (S11W85) was
       responsible for at least three class-C flares over the past 24
       hours. The largest was a C5.7/SF at 11/1023UT. Four other
       class-C x-ray bursts were observed but uncorrelated. These were
       probably from Region 7518 as well. This region is about to
       rotate off the disk and will leave us with very little of
       interest remaining.

       STD: Strong Ca XV emissions are being observed on the southwest
       limb as Region 7518 begins to transit the west limb. Additional
       emissions (strong to possibly intense) are expected from this
       same area tommorrow.  Also, an Fe XIV extension of the northern
       polar coronal hole is presently located at the central meridian
       down to N30.  This feature has migrated only slightly
       equatorward during the last solar rotation.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low until Region 7518 completes its transit, then very low
       activity will prevail. Region 7518 still has a chance of
       class-C and class-M flare activity and a slight possibilty
       of major flare before it is completely around the limb.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels
       for the past 24 hours. We detected a sudden impulse of 10 nT
       late yesterday. The ensuing activity reached minor to major
       storm levels before subsiding to mostly quiet about 11/0300UT.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled for entire forecast period.

            Event probabilities 12 jun-14 jun

                             Class M    20/10/05
                             Class X    05/01/01
                             Proton     05/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 12 jun-14 jun

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                30/25/25
                        Minor Storm           20/15/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                30/25/25
                        Minor Storm           25/20/20
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all
       regions.  Conditions rapidly returned to near-normal early in
       the UT day following yesterdays brief geomagnetic storm
       activity.  Propagation conditions are expected to continue
       near-normal over all paths for the next 72 hours (through 14
       June inclusive).


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 11/2400Z JUNE
-------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7518  S11W85  012  0300 DKI  08  008 BETA
7519  N06W73  360  0030 HSX  01  001 ALPHA
7522  N22E06  281  0110 CAO  04  005 BETA
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 12 JUNE TO 14 JUNE
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 11 JUNE, 1993
---------------------------------------------------
A.  ENERGETIC EVENTS:
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
NONE



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 11 JUNE, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 11/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
12   N55E20 S04W63 S02W65 N60E17  317  EXT   POS   025 10830A
13   S22W10 S22W10 S17W40 S10W27  311  ISO   POS   005 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


