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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 10 June
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Thu, 10 Jun 93 22:33:40 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  10 JUNE, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 10 JUNE, 1993
--------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 161, 06/10/93
10.7 FLUX=112.6  90-AVG=118        SSN=061      BKI=0122 1256  BAI=019
BGND-XRAY=B6.9     FLU1=3.3E+06  FLU10=1.3E+04  PKI=1232 2256  PAI=023
  BOU-DEV=002,009,015,015,008,013,054,170   DEV-AVG=035 NT     SWF=01:020
 XRAY-MAX= M1.9   @ 0608UT    XRAY-MIN= B3.9   @ 0008UT   XRAY-AVG= C1.9
NEUTN-MAX= +000%  @ 0000UT   NEUTN-MIN= +000%  @ 0000UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 0000UT     PCA-MIN= +0.0DB @ 0000UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55418NT @ 2306UT   BOUTF-MIN=55338NT @ 1747UT  BOUTF-AVG=55365NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+088,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+179NT@ 1930UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-156NT@ 2250UT  G6-AVG=+110,-022,-054
 FLUXFCST=STD:105,095,090;SESC:105,095,090 BAI/PAI-FCST=020,015,015/030,018,015
    KFCST=4445 4443 2224 3222  27DAY-AP=017,012   27DAY-KP=2334 5332 2133 3243
 WARNINGS=*SWF;*GSTRM;*PROTON;*AURMIDWRN
   ALERTS=**MINFLR:M1.9/SF@0608UTC,S12W67(7518);**MAGSI:10NT@1727UTC
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 09 JUN 93 was  70.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 09 JUN 93 are: 3- 3o 2- 2o   2+ 2- 2o 2+ 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was moderate. Region 7518 (S10W75)
       produced an M1.9/SF flare at 10/0608UT, six class-C flares and
       numerous subflares over the past 24 hours. This region still
       shows slow growth as it approaches the west limb.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low to moderate. Region 7518 has the best chance of producing
       class-C flares, an isolated class-M flare, and still has a slim
       chance of major flare activity before it rotates off the disk.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for
       the past 24 hours. The anticipated shock front from the M5/2B
       flare on 7 June apparently arrived about 10/1800UT, producing
       active levels at all latitudes. (STD: A sudden impulse was
       observed at ground-stations and at geosynchronous altitudes at
       about 17:27 UTC.)

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be unsettled to active for the initial 48 hours of
       the forecast period, then mostly unsettled. High latitude
       stations can expect to see minor storm levels for the next
       24 hours.

       STD: The field hit major storm levels between 2030Z and 2300Z
       on 10 June.  It has since relaxed to unsettled to active
       levels as of 11/0400Z.

            Event probabilities 11 jun-13 jun

                             Class M    30/25/10
                             Class X    05/05/01
                             Proton     05/05/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 11 jun-13 jun

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                35/30/25
                        Minor Storm           25/20/20
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                25/30/25
                        Minor Storm           35/20/20
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/05/05

            HF propagation conditions were generally normal over all
       regions today, until approximately 20:00 UTC when strong
       geomagnetic storming was reported over the polar, high, and
       middle latitude regions.  Transpolar and transauroral
       propagation became useless late in the UT day, while many
       middle latitude stations reported fair to poor propagation.
       Conditions have improved somewhat since then.  Propagation is
       expected to remain unstable and degraded (particularly over the
       high and polar latitude paths) over the next 18 to 24 hours.
       Thereafter, some gradual improvements can be expected.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 10/2400Z JUNE
-------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7518  S10W75  015  0580 EKI  13  024 BETA
7519  N06W61  001  0040 CSO  04  004 BETA
7522  N22E18  282  0110 CAO  05  003 BETA
7521  N11W75  015                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 11 JUNE TO 13 JUNE
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 10 JUNE, 1993
---------------------------------------------------
A.  ENERGETIC EVENTS:
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 0509 0608 0620 7518  S12W67 M1.9  SF        60



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 10 JUNE, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
10/ 0135             A0145       N28E90   EPL


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 10/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
12   N48W03 N02W46 N02W46 N57W11  328  ISO   POS   025 10830A
13   S15W00 S23W02 S17W21 S10W17  317  ISO   POS   002 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


