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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 09 June
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Wed, 9 Jun 93 21:52:29 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  09 JUNE, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 09 JUNE, 1993
--------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 160, 06/09/93
10.7 FLUX=115.4  90-AVG=118        SSN=062      BKI=2312 1122  BAI=006
BGND-XRAY=B3.6     FLU1=2.2E+06  FLU10=1.4E+04  PKI=3322 2222  PAI=008
  BOU-DEV=016,027,008,014,008,008,010,014   DEV-AVG=013 NT     SWF=01:018
 XRAY-MAX= M2.2   @ 1838UT    XRAY-MIN= B2.6   @ 0031UT   XRAY-AVG= C1.3
NEUTN-MAX= +000%  @ 0000UT   NEUTN-MIN= +000%  @ 0000UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 0000UT     PCA-MIN= +0.0DB @ 0000UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55374NT @ 0046UT   BOUTF-MIN=55329NT @ 1850UT  BOUTF-AVG=55358NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+075,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+112NT@ 1621UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-082NT@ 0115UT  G6-AVG=+099,-020,-053
 FLUXFCST=STD:105,100,090;SESC:105,100,090 BAI/PAI-FCST=020,020,020/035,025,018
    KFCST=4445 4443 4445 4444  27DAY-AP=008,017   27DAY-KP=3212 1232 2334 5332
 WARNINGS=*SWF;*PROTON;*GSTRM;*AURMIDWRN
   ALERTS=**MINFLR:M2.2/1B@1838UTC,S12W59(7518)
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 08 JUN 93 was  79.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 08 JUN 93 are: 4- 4- 3+ 3-   3- 3- 3- 2o 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was moderate. Region 7518 (S10W63)
       produced an M2.2/1B flare at 09/1838UT, two small class-C
       flares, and numerous subfaint flares. This region showed only
       minor growth in the past 24 hours.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low to moderate. Region 7518 has the only real chance of
       producing an isolated class-M flare. This region also has a
       slim chance of producing a major flare.

            The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet levels
       for the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be mostly unsettled for the first 12 hours of the
       forecast period, then unsettled to active for the remainder
       of the period. A shock front, resulting from the M5.4/2B flare
       on 7 June, and a favorably positioned coronal hole are expected
       to produce the activity.

            Event probabilities 10 jun-12 jun

                             Class M    30/30/25
                             Class X    05/05/01
                             Proton     05/05/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 10 jun-12 jun

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                35/35/30
                        Minor Storm           25/30/25
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/10

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                25/25/30
                        Minor Storm           35/40/30
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/10/10

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over most
       regions.  Propagation is expected to become degraded over the
       high and polar latitude paths on 10 June following the arrival
       of the anticipated shock front from the M5.4/2B tenflare of 07
       June. The speed of the disturbance is lower than originally
       anticipated, which should result in stronger propagation
       conditions over the lower and middle latitude regions. However,
       middle to polar latitude paths can still expect to see signal
       degradation (minor to occasionally major) during the local
       night and morning sectors.  Degradation will be strongest on
       transpolar and transauroral circuits.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 09/2400Z JUNE
-------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7518  S10W63  017  0570 EKI  11  026 BETA
7519  N06W47  001  0070 CAO  03  005 BETA
7522  N22E30  284  0090 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7521  N11W62  016                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 10 JUNE TO 12 JUNE
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 09 JUNE, 1993
---------------------------------------------------
A.  ENERGETIC EVENTS:
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 1825 1838 1849 7518  S12W59 M2.2  1B        23



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 09 JUNE, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
09/ 0227     0305     0456                LDE    C1.7  149


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 09/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
12   N44E04 S06W31 N10W34 N47W04  336  ISO   POS   015 10830A
13   S15E05 S20E03 S16W09 S09E04  316  ISO   POS   002 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


