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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 08 June
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Tue, 8 Jun 93 20:34:56 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  08 JUNE, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 08 JUNE, 1993
--------------------------------------------------------

NOTE: The 10.7 cm solar radio flux for 20:00 UTC was not available at the
      time this report was compiled.  The 23:00 UTC value is given here.

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 159, 06/08/93
10.7 FLUX=112.3  90-AVG=119        SSN=063      BKI=3333 2220  BAI=010
BGND-XRAY=B3.4     FLU1=8.7E+06  FLU10=6.2E+04  PKI=4433 3332  PAI=014
  BOU-DEV=034,038,025,028,017,018,017,003   DEV-AVG=022 NT     SWF=01:004
 XRAY-MAX= M1.1   @ 0215UT    XRAY-MIN= B2.6   @ 2357UT   XRAY-AVG= B7.5
NEUTN-MAX= +000%  @ 0000UT   NEUTN-MIN= +000%  @ 0000UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 0000UT     PCA-MIN= +0.0DB @ 0000UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55391NT @ 0144UT   BOUTF-MIN=55330NT @ 1805UT  BOUTF-AVG=55359NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+075,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+130NT@ 1636UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-099NT@ 0117UT  G6-AVG=+100,-021,-055
 FLUXFCST=STD:110,105,100;SESC:110,105,100 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,025,015/018,035,015
    KFCST=3333 3334 4555 4443  27DAY-AP=014,008   27DAY-KP=3333 3333 3212 1232
 WARNINGS=*SWF;*PROTON;*GSTRM;*AURMIDWRN
   ALERTS=**MINFLR:M1.1@0215UTC;**TENFLR:120SFU@0207UTC,DUR=3MIN
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 07 JUN 93 was  80.4.
      The Full Kp Indices for 07 JUN 93 are: 3o 2+ 3o 4o   5- 4- 3+ 3+ 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was moderate. An M1.1 x-ray burst occurred
       at 08/0215Z associated with a 120 sfu tenflare, but no optical
       correlation. However, it is likely that Region 7518 (S10W49)
       was responsible for the burst, given its recent level of
       activity. It produced numerous subflares during the period
       including three that reached C-class. The other regions were
       quiet and stable. No new regions were assigned.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low to moderate. There is a fair chance for an M-class flare
       from Region 7518. The region also presents a slight chance for
       an isolated major flare.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels
       for the past 24 hours. A few brief periods of active levels
       occurred before 08/1500Z.

       STD: Protons at greater than 10 MeV decayed to near background
       levels by about 08/1600Z.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be at mostly unsettled levels until late 09 June or
       early 10 June when the effects from yesterday's M5.4/2B flare
       are predicted to arrive. The field is expected to be at active
       to minor storm levels during the second day with brief periods
       of major storming possible. The field is expected to subside to
       unsettled levels during the third day.

       STD: A Middle Latitude Auroral Activity Warning has been issued
       for the UT days of 09 through 11 June, with emphasis on 10
       June.  The disturbance associated with yesterday's major flare
       is expected to produce activity that should be strong enough to
       be observed from many middle latitude regions with dark-sky
       sites.  Optimum observing conditions will occur prior to
       moonrise, which occurs shortly after midnight (local time) on
       10 June.

            Event probabilities 09 jun-11 jun

                             Class M    40/40/30
                             Class X    10/10/05
                             Proton     10/10/05
                             PCAF       Yellow

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 09 jun-11 jun

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                30/40/40
                        Minor Storm           15/30/30
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                25/25/25
                        Minor Storm           20/40/40
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/10/10

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over most
       regions.  Similar conditions are expected through most of 09
       June.  The disturbance associated with yesterday's major flare
       is expected to arrive anytime from approximately 18:00 UTC on
       09 June to 10:00 UTC on 10 June.  After the flare shock
       arrives, propagation over the high and polar latitudes will
       deteriorate.  Middle latitude paths are expected to observe
       signal instabilities that should become more pronounced after
       the main phase of the storm arrives.  In general, poor to near
       useless propagation is expected over the high and polar latitude
       paths (particularly those paths which transit the auroral
       zones) with potentially strong fading, absorption, and
       multipath activity.  Middle latitude paths should see fair to
       occasionally very poor propagation (during the local night
       sectors).  Low latitudes should continue to see good to fair
       propagation throughout the period.  Some improvements are
       expected over the low and middle latitudes on 11 June, with
       most regions returning to near-normal on 12 and 13 June.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 08/2400Z JUNE
-------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7518  S10W49  016  0530 DKI  10  028 BETA-GAMMA
7519  N06W33  360  0070 HSX  02  004 ALPHA
7522  N23E44  283  0100 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7517  N09W82  049                    PLAGE
7521  N11W49  016                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 09 JUNE TO 11 JUNE
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 08 JUNE, 1993
---------------------------------------------------
A.  ENERGETIC EVENTS:
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 0147 0215 0241              M1.1            120



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 08 JUNE, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 08/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
12   N40E19 S02W18 N04W23 N50E07  331  EXT   POS   027 10830A
13   S22E27 S25E26 S13W00 S10E03  312  ISO   POS   006 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


