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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 07 June
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Mon, 7 Jun 93 23:21:47 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  07 JUNE, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 07 JUNE, 1993
--------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 158, 06/07/93
10.7 FLUX=112.3  90-AVG=119        SSN=089      BKI=3134 4333  BAI=016
BGND-XRAY=B3.4     FLU1=7.6E+06  FLU10=1.3E+05  PKI=3234 5433  PAI=020
  BOU-DEV=000,009,027,045,058,039,021,028   DEV-AVG=028 NT     SWF=01:055
 XRAY-MAX= M5.4   @ 1425UT    XRAY-MIN= B3.0   @ 1039UT   XRAY-AVG= C2.2
NEUTN-MAX= +000%  @ 0000UT   NEUTN-MIN= +000%  @ 0000UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 0000UT     PCA-MIN= +0.0DB @ 0000UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55388NT @ 0105UT   BOUTF-MIN=55316NT @ 1714UT  BOUTF-AVG=55357NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+078,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+129NT@ 1602UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-103NT@ 2221UT  G6-AVG=+102,-021,-054
 FLUXFCST=STD:115,115,110;SESC:115,115,110 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,015,025/012,018,035
    KFCST=2233 3322 2233 3334  27DAY-AP=008,014   27DAY-KP=2322 2222 3333 3333
 WARNINGS=*SWF;*PROTON
   ALERTS=**MAJFLR:M5.4/2B@1351-1425-1443,S10W30(7518);**SWEEP:II=3;
          **SWEEP:IV=3@1425UTC;**TENFLR:1100SFU@1409UTC,DUR=42;
          **245STRM:0201-0521UTC;**PROTNENH

!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 06 JUN 93 is not available.
      The Full Kp Indices for 06 JUN 93 are: 3o 3+ 4o 3-   3- 3- 3+ 4- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was high. Region 7518 (S09W35) erupted
       with an M5.4/2B flare at 07/1425Z. An 1100 sfu tenflare, major
       Types II and IV spectral radio sweep bursts, and a loop
       prominence system accompanied the flare. The region also
       produced several C-class subflares before and following the
       major flare. No new regions were assigned.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low to moderate. Region 7518 may produce isolated M-class
       flares. There is also a slight chance for another major flare
       from this region.

            The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels
       for the past 24 hours. Brief periods of minor storming were
       reported by some high latitude stations. A greater than
       10 MeV proton enhancement followed the M5.4/2B flare. It began
       at 07/1510 and reached a maximum flux of 6.2 pfu at 07/1835Z.
       The enhancement was in progress and gradually declining at the
       end of the period.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be at mostly unsettled levels until late 09 June -
       early 10 june when the effects of the M5/2B are expected to
       arrive. Thereafter, the field is expected to be at active to
       minor storm levels. The proton enhancement is expected to
       decline to preflare levels during the first day of the period.

            Event probabilities 08 jun-10 jun

                             Class M    40/40/40
                             Class X    10/10/10
                             Proton     10/10/10
                             PCAF       Yellow

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 08 jun-10 jun

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                15/15/35
                        Minor Storm           10/10/30
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/10

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                20/20/25
                        Minor Storm           10/10/35
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/15

            HF propagation conditions varied widely, from near-normal
       to well below normal.  Todays major M5.4/2B tenflare produced a
       strong short wave fadeout (SWF) spanning the low and middle
       latitude regions.  Well-below normal propagation was observed
       for signals transiting the daylit hemisphere during this major
       flare.  Conditions returned to near-normal by the end of the
       day.  Propagation is expected to be near-normal for the next
       two days (through most of 09 June).  The arrival of the flare
       shock from todays major flare is expected to produce degraded
       propagation in most regions from the polar to lower latitudes.
       This anticipated disturbance has the potential to produce a
       fairly strong ionospheric storm.  Although the probability of
       this occurring is rather low, it is worthy of note.  Degraded
       propagation can be expected for approximately 48 hours
       following the arrival of the disturbance.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 07/2400Z JUNE
-------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7517  N09W69  049  0010 AXX  01  002 ALPHA
7518  S09W35  015  0460 DKI  10  034 BETA-GAMMA
7519  N06W15  355  0080 CSO  10  012 BETA
7522  N23E57  283  0090 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7521  N11W36  016                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 08 JUNE TO 10 JUNE
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 07 JUNE, 1993
---------------------------------------------------
A.  ENERGETIC EVENTS:
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 1351 1425 1443 7518  S10W30 M5.4  2B    230 1100   II/IV



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 07 JUNE, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
07/ 1423              1433       S10W30   RSP    M5.4   52  3  3


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 07/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
11   S60W26 S60W26 S60W90 S24W90  045  ISO   NEG   045 10830A
12   N47E42 S06W08 S02W12 N47E42  330  ISO   POS   018 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


