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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 06 June
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: 	Mon, 7 Jun 1993 08:53:46 +0300
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  06 JUNE, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 06 JUNE, 1993
--------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 157, 06/06/93
10.7 FLUX=127.5  90-AVG=120        SSN=110      BKI=3343 3233  BAI=015
BGND-XRAY=B3.7     FLU1=3.0E+06  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=3343 3334  PAI=017
  BOU-DEV=023,039,048,024,023,019,035,036   DEV-AVG=030 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C2.3   @ 1650UT    XRAY-MIN= B3.4   @ 1105UT   XRAY-AVG= B5.9
NEUTN-MAX= +000%  @ 0000UT   NEUTN-MIN= +000%  @ 0000UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 0000UT     PCA-MIN= +0.0DB @ 0000UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55382NT @ 0121UT   BOUTF-MIN=55330NT @ 1930UT  BOUTF-AVG=55357NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+075,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+124NT@ 1749UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-106NT@ 0213UT  G6-AVG=+098,-023,-058
 FLUXFCST=STD:125,120,115;SESC:125,120,115 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,010/015,010,010
    KFCST=2233 3322 2233 3322  27DAY-AP=054,008   27DAY-KP=6766 5234 2322 2222
 WARNINGS=*SWF;*AURMIDWCH
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 05 JUN 93 was  97.3.
      The Full Kp Indices for 05 JUN 93 are: 6- 6+ 5- 5-   4- 3+ 4- 3o 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Region 7518 (S09W22) produced
       several C-class subflares while continuing to grow at a gradual
       pace. Region 7515 (N14W84) produced a single C-class subflare
       and displayed bright surging as it began to cross the west
       limb. New Region 7522 (N22E70) was numbered.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       mostly low. Region 7518 is likely to produce C-class flares. It
       also provides a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare.

            The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels
       for the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be at mostly unsettled levels.

            Event probabilities 07 jun-09 jun

                             Class M    20/20/20
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 07 jun-09 jun

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                15/15/15
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                20/20/20
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

            HF propagation conditions gradually improved throughout
       the day over all regions.  Sporadic fading and multipathing
       were the dominant factors affecting signals, and these
       anomalies were mostly limited to the high and polar latitude
       regions (particularly those within the auroral zones).  By the
       end of the UT day, most regions had returned to near-normal
       propagation with the lower latitudes reporting enhancements in
       MUF by as much as 30 percent above normal values.  Additional
       improvements in propagation are expected over the next 24 to 48
       hours.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 06/2400Z JUNE
-------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7515  N14W84  077  0130 DAO  08  006 BETA
7517  N10W56  049  0050 HSX  02  003 ALPHA
7518  S09W22  015  0410 DAI  09  042 BETA
7519  N05W03  356  0080 CAO  07  010 BETA
7522  N22E70  283  0070 HSX  01  001 ALPHA
7521  N11W23  016                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 07 JUNE TO 09 JUNE
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 06 JUNE, 1993
---------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 0105 0111 0116 7518  S08W15 C1.8  SN    630


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 06 JUNE, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 06/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **


