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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 05 June
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: 	Sun, 6 Jun 1993 09:21:04 +0300
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  05 JUNE, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 05 JUNE, 1993
--------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 156, 06/05/93
10.7 FLUX=133.8  90-AVG=120        SSN=104      BKI=6555 3343  BAI=037
BGND-XRAY=B4.7     FLU1=3.5E+06  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=6655 4343  PAI=039
  BOU-DEV=121,093,080,075,038,031,040,021   DEV-AVG=062 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C3.9   @ 0823UT    XRAY-MIN= B4.1   @ 0236UT   XRAY-AVG= B7.1
NEUTN-MAX= +000%  @ 0000UT   NEUTN-MIN= +000%  @ 0000UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 0000UT     PCA-MIN= +0.0DB @ 0000UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55419NT @ 0021UT   BOUTF-MIN=55335NT @ 0514UT  BOUTF-AVG=55361NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+073,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+123NT@ 1628UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-132NT@ 0022UT  G6-AVG=+098,-026,-065
 FLUXFCST=STD:135,130,125;SESC:135,130,125 BAI/PAI-FCST=025,010,010/025,015,010
    KFCST=4455 4433 3233 3322  27DAY-AP=039,054   27DAY-KP=5654 3345 6766 5234
 WARNINGS=*SWF;*GSTRM;*AURMIDWCH
   ALERTS=**MINSTRM;**245STRM:0230-0250UTC
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 04 JUN 93 was 103.3.
      The Full Kp Indices for 04 JUN 93 are: 4o 4+ 6+ 6o   4o 4o 5o 5+ 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Region 7519 (N06E10) produced a
       C3.9/1N flare at 05/0823Z. Region 7518 (S09W08) continued to
       grow at a steady pace and produced a few subflares. Region 7515
       (N14W69) was stable. No new regions were assigned.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       mostly low. Regions 7515 and 7518 may produce C-class flares.
       Both regions provide a slight chance for an isolated M-class
       flare.

            The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm
       levels. Brief major to severe storm periods were observed at
       some high latitude stations. This activity is probably due to
       coronal hole effects.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be at mostly active levels during the first day
       due to continuing coronal hole effects. Brief periods of minor
       to major storming could occur as well, particularly at high
       latitudes. Activity is expected to decline to unsettled levels
       for the rest of the period.

            Event probabilities 06 jun-08 jun

                             Class M    25/20/20
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 06 jun-08 jun

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                30/20/15
                        Minor Storm           30/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    15/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                30/20/20
                        Minor Storm           30/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    20/05/05

            HF propagation conditions continued well below-normal over
       most regions.  Low and equatorial paths were the only areas
       that saw near-normal propagation.  Circuits crossing the middle
       to polar latitude regions saw signal degradation in the form of
       fading, absorption, and multipath activity.  Blanketing
       sporadic-E has been widely reported as well as periods of near
       complete absorption (see the daily ionospheric data summary for
       05 June more detailed numerical information).  Conditions
       should gradually improve over the next three days.  Near-normal
       propagation should return by about 08 June.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 05/2400Z JUNE
-------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7515  N14W69  075  0300 DAO  10  011 BETA-GAMMA
7517  N09W43  049  0060 HAX  02  002 ALPHA
7518  S09W08  014  0250 DAI  08  031 BETA
7519  N06E10  356  0100 DAO  06  009 BETA
7521  N11W10  016  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7520  S09W39  045                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 06 JUNE TO 08 JUNE
NMBR LAT    LO
7504 N10   275
7506 N10   270


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 05 JUNE, 1993
---------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 0159 0159 0200                          120
 2301 2301 2303                          130


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 05 JUNE, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 05/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
11   S50W09 S50W64 S50W64 S23W37  054  EXT   NEG   025 10830A
12   N48E66 S12E26 S12E16 N48E66  329  ISO   POS   019 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


